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Investing in the new CASSH economies
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Christine St Anne is Morningstar's online funds and ETFs editor.
About five years ago, a friend of mine invited the globally recognised entrepreneur Donald Trump to speak at an event in Sydney.
Trump politely declined the invitation and gently told my friend that he couldn't possibly travel to a "little country that was so far away".
Fast forward to 2011 and this little country seems to remain afloat, in stark contrast to most developed countries that are struggling under a mountain of debt - including Trump's beloved US.
Indeed, Australia has emerged from the global financial crisis as part of a new bloc of countries titled the "CASSH" economies. These countries include Canada, Australia, Singapore, Switzerland and Hong Kong.
These countries have been identified by iShares chief investment strategist Russ Koesterich in his paper, The Case for CASSH, as smaller developed economies offering hidden value.
Not all developed countries are the same
Developed economies on the whole have taken a battering from the crisis in Europe. It's not surprising that the general outlook for the developed world os for a period of sustained slow growth.
Not all developed markets fit into this "slow-growth purgatory," according to Koesterich.
"Interestingly, it is the smaller, developed countries that appear most healthy. Many of these countries are less burdened by debt and structural deficits and, for the most part, they enjoy better growth prospects," Koesterich says.
"Specifically, we could argue that Canada, Australia, Singapore, Switzerland and Hong Kong appear fundamentally stronger than most of the large developed countries."
Next year, these CASSH countries are expected to grow by about 3.5 per cent. In contrast, the United States and the eurozone are expected to grow by less than 2 per cent.
Koesterich says one of the main reasons for the better growth rates in the CASSH countries is that they are not hampered by large deficits. This makes them more solvent, a key component in determining a country's valuation.
Gross debt to GDP averages around 50 per cent in the CASSH countries, versus 85 per cent in Europe and nearly a whopping 100 per cent in the United States.
Importantly, these lower debt levels give these countries more power to stimulate growth through expansive fiscal policies.
Koesterich says this debt-to-GDP ratio in CASSH economies is inflated because of Singapore, which carries a debt-to-GDP ratio of 105 per cent. However, the bulk of Singapore's debt includes government securities that are used to fund the country's pension scheme.
The CASSH countries are not only able to manage their debt levels better than other developed nations but can fund their pension liabilities, particularly Australia.
Koesterich says Australia's compulsory superannuation system has gone a long way in funding its pension liabilities.
The combination of manageable debt levels and sustainable pension systems means less sovereign risk for these CASSH countries.
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