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China in 2012

Christine St Anne  |  01 Feb 2012Text size  Decrease  Increase  |  

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Christine St Anne is Morningstar's online editor.

 

Chinese New Year has heralded 2012 as the Year of the Dragon. Given the recent stellar rise of China, the past 10 years could have very well been called the "Decade of the Dragon" as China breathed life into ailing economies.

The New Year, however, has brought with it concern about China's growth outlook, and importantly, whether her insatiable appetite for commodities will remain.

Economic data from China to date has somewhat alleviated some of these concerns. While analysts predicted an 8.7 per cent growth for the country in the December quarter, the Chinese economy in fact grew 8.9 per cent.

In a world where many countries are stuck with meagre 2 per cent growth rates, an 8.9 per cent return is not exactly disheartening. However, for China, it was the slowest annual growth rate in 2.5 years.

Commsec chief economist Craig James believes China is still on track for a "soft landing".

"At first glance, economic growth of 8.9 per cent hardly sounds like a 'soft landing'. But when you consider the economy had been growing at a near 12 per cent rate and that the long-term average growth rate is 9 per cent, the latest economic growth reading appears spot on," James says.

The Chinese data also came with a number of upbeat forecasts across retail spending and industrial production. Compared to a year ago, retail sales in December were up 18.1 per cent, industrial production was up 12.8 per cent, and fixed-asset investment was up 23.8 per cent.

James says the data is also good news for Australia.

"You couldn't have conjured up a better outcome for Australia. Our major trading partner is continuing to grow at a solid, sustainable rate and it is still poised to ease policy gently to maintain the current growth pace," he says.

"Clearly there are challenges ahead, but you would argue that both Australia and China are among the best-placed economies to ride through challenging global conditions over the next few months."

 

Manager perspectives

Investment managers are also relatively optimistic about the growth outlook for China.

Walter Scott, a Scottish-based fund manager, runs a global equity fund that invests in a small number of companies.

"An investment approach based on concentrated portfolios of a small number of stocks and a long-term investment perspective allows for a positive outlook on China," Walter Scott co-head of investment Roy Leckie says.