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Make or break time

Lesley Beath  |  18 Oct 2011Text size  Decrease  Increase  |  

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The views expressed in this report are those of Lesley Beath and may differ from Morningstar's views.

 

Reviewed this week

 

Please note: before making an investment decision, Morningstar recommends you read the fundamental research available on these stocks.

Disclaimer: To the extent that any content in this report constitutes advice, it is general advice that has been prepared by Lesley Beath without taking into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual investors. If necessary, you should consult with a licensed investment adviser or dealer in securities such as a stockbroker before making an investment decision. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Morningstar as a result of using different assumptions and criteria.


Overview

Last week was another good one for global equities.

In the US the S&P 500 gained 6%, and in Europe the German DAX continued its recent gains, advancing by 5%. The UK FTSE bounced by 3%. Importantly the BRIC's finally put in strong performances, with Brazil up 7.4% and Russia up 11.3%. India gained 5.2% and China advanced 3%. The improvement in these markets is encouraging as they had previously lagged the rally from the early-October lows.

The US market is now testing the upper limits of its recent trading range, and this resistance now coincides with the 200DMA. This is an important level and a potential turning point. If the market is to fail here it would bring out the bears who will argue that what we have seen over the past few weeks is just a short-covering rally and that the test of the 200DMA is a normal occurrence in the bear market cycle.

 

50 Leaders Index and S&P500 Index (Spot) chart

(click image to enlarge)

 

As a lot of emphasis is placed on the 200DMA, a quick explanation is warranted.

The 200DMA (200 day moving average) is viewed by many as the major determinant of the long-term trend of the market. A rising 200DMA implies an overall uptrend - corrections in the uptrend will find support at the 200DMA. These corrections are viewed as a Buying opportunity before prices head higher once again.