Stocks Special Reports LICs Hybrids Technical Analysis Funds ETFs Tools SMSFs
Learn
Video Archive Article Archive
News Stocks Special Reports Funds ETFs Features Hybrids Technical Analysis SMSFs Learn Fund Times Ask the Analyst China Wrap
About

News

Many stocks have reached 'make or break' levels

Lesley Beath  |  15 Nov 2011Text size  Decrease  Increase  |  

Page 1 of 8

The views expressed in this report are those of Lesley Beath and may differ from Morningstar's views.

 

Reviewed this week

 

Please note: before making an investment decision, Morningstar recommends you read the fundamental research available on these stocks.

Disclaimer: To the extent that any content in this report constitutes advice, it is general advice that has been prepared by Lesley Beath without taking into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual investors. If necessary, you should consult with a licensed investment adviser or dealer in securities such as a stockbroker before making an investment decision. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Morningstar as a result of using different assumptions and criteria.


Overview

The Australian market has done very little over the past month. Neither has the US.

Despite the fear, anxiety, and at times relief over the European situation the All Ords sits just marginally above the level that it hit on October 17, when it tested the downtrend from the April high. But despite this lack of direction, quite a lot has happened.

As discussed in recent weeks, the index has broken above the April downtrend and it is also trading above an improving 56DMA. Momentum indicators are positive and we are in a seasonally positive timeframe. This is all good news and although I suggested last week that I did not think we would see a sharp move higher, I still believe that risk is skewed to the upside over the next couple of months.

Even the beleaguered Retail sector is looking positive, with a long-term Buy signal in place. It would appear that, for the time being, the worst is over in the major stocks in this sector. JB Hi-Fi (JBH) and Myer (MYR) present the most constructive chart profiles at this stage, but Cash Convertors (CCV) has the ability to surprise on the upside.

Elsewhere, the Healthcare sector is also looking good.

It would appear that Cochlear (COH) has forged an important low, and Ramsay Healthcare (RHC) has finally broken to new highs after struggling with resistance for most of the year. This is an exceptionally strong stock and unless we get a quick retracement of last week's gains, we can assume that a new upleg is underway. Invocare (IVC) is another stock worth a mention. It is bouncing from solid support after tracking sideways for the past year.

CSL (CSL) bounced off multi-year support in September and although it remains below critical resistance, last week's 5% bounce is impressive and only marginal strength is required to push it above the prevailing downtrend.

And in the Property sector, Westfield has just pushed above the 2011 downtrend. The break is tentative at this stage but nonetheless it comes as a relief after the relentless decline since February. A long-term Buy signal is also in place. Ardent Leisure (AAD) is bouncing off solid support, as is Abacus Property (ABP).

GPT is in a different position, battling strong resistance. It has underperformed its sector over the past month, and further underperformance is anticipated.

As for the Top 20 and 50 Leaders, I think that they will underperform over the next month or so. This is likely to be the result of a lacklustre performance in the banks. I don't expect much downside but I think that they (the banks) can pause in the short-term. Outperformance by the Midcap 50 and the Small Ordinaries appears likely. This could suggest a little bit more confidence by investors and adds to the belief that risk in the broader market is to the upside over the next month or so. But as I said last week, don't expect strong gains; it is likely to be gradual and volatile.