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Seeking safety in the laggards

Lesley Beath  |  22 Feb 2011Text size  Decrease  Increase  |  

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The views expressed in this report are those of Lesley Beath and may differ from Morningstar's views.

 

Reviewed this week

Low-risk opportunities.

 

Please note: before making an investment decision, Morningstar recommends you read the fundamental research available on these stocks.

Disclaimer: To the extent that any content in this report constitutes advice, it is general advice that has been prepared by Lesley Beath without taking into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual investors. If necessary, you should consult with a licensed investment adviser or dealer in securities such as a stockbroker before making an investment decision. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of Morningstar as a result of using different assumptions and criteria.


Overview

Last week saw some strong gains across global equity markets, with Greece the best performer. The Athens General Index advanced by almost 6%. This comes after the index posted a monthly 'key reversal' in January, suggesting that a significant low has been registered.

Some of the weaker performers of the past few months topped the ranks of gainers, with Brazil, India, Malaysia, and China some of the noteworthy examples.

In the case of China, it is highly likely that the upmove that commenced last July could begin to gather pace. This comes after a 15% decline since November, during which the Shanghai Composite briefly penetrated the 200DMA. Brazil and India also penetrated their 200DMA, after falls of 12% and 17% respectively. It appears as though the end of the corrective phase for these particular markets is close at hand.

This is all positive action, but the US market remains a concern as the rise since the beginning of December looks extremely overextended.

This comes at a time when the VIX, as has been discussed in recent reports, hovers above long-term support. This suggests that a turning point in the US market may not be too far off.

There is scope for some further upside in the near term. But it is risky.

In Australia, the All Ords gained one per cent last week, but it remains below the resistance of the April 2010 high.

With both the Banking and Resource sectors at resistance, a topside breakout is not anticipated in the near term.

Banks have outperformed this year, but they could pause in the near term. They have benefitted from the rotation out of the resources, but now it is some of the Industrial sectors that could provide the best returns over the next few months. I don't expect major upside, and there is scope for heightened volatility, but taking a longer-term view, many of those stocks that have been in a corrective mode for the past year or so are finally completing lengthy reversal patterns. In many instances new Buy signals are in place, and downside risk is limited.

In mid January, the Banks, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples were highlighted as they exhibited an improving profile. The Banks have lived up to expectations, but Consumer Discretionary, pulled lower by falls in the Retail sector, has lagged.

A selection of stocks from the Retail sector was reviewed in that report; all were viewed favourably. But after an initial bounce, David Jones (DJS), Harvey Norman (HVN) and JB Hi-Fi (JBH) dipped. But this has not aborted the longer-term positive profile and all three continue to present improving chart patterns.