China rally will continue but prepare for volatility

Emma Wall  |  07/09/2016Text size  Decrease  Increase  |  

Emma Wall: Hello, and welcome to the Morningstar series, "Market Reaction." I'm Emma Wall and I'm joined today by Catherine Yeung, investment director for Fidelity.

Hi, Catherine.

Catherine Yeung: Hi, Emma.

Wall: So, this time last year we were seeing a lot of volatility in Asian markets, specifically the Hang Seng and the Shanghai. We've just had the one-year anniversary of Black Monday which caused contagion in the European markets and in the US. But fast forward to this year and markets in this region are looking a lot more sanguine, aren't they?

Yeung: They are ex the Chinese markets. So, we have seen a shift from developed markets to emerging markets probably mainly due to the valuations in terms of emerging markets looking very, very attractive. China specifically, I mean, investors really still need to remember--in fact, not just China, across Asia, these markets are still cyclical, they're young, they're ever evolving.

Wall: But they are up this year, aren't they? I mean, I think China market is up about 15 per cent over the last year and the Hong Kong market is up about 10 per cent. If you compare that to a couple of years ago where we were seeing losses from this region, can we expect things to be volatile but positive going forward?

Yeung: I would expect further volatility. Let's say to the end of the year China is likely to continue to stage a catchup because versus emerging markets versus developed markets it really has been underperforming. When we look at the market itself, a lot more volatile than the economy. So, the economy is likely to muddle its way through.

We still have some concerns about the financial system and the reforms recapitalization of the banks that has to come through at some point. But in terms of the rest of the economy, manufacturing is sort of not picking up dramatically but seeing some forms of recovery. The property market, which is the backbone of China, is doing well and we see, of course, the consumers whilst consumption has slowed a bit, we are still seeing very attractive consumption levels versus developed markets.

Wall: And how does that feed down into sector opportunities? If you're saying then there are some concerns economic-wise but of course the consumer is strong?

Yeung: Well, so the consumer names are still very, very attractive in terms of the long-term opportunities. And if you have a market share, high barriers of entry, really understand your customer can deviate or diversify across your customer base then that puts you really in a good position in terms of future margins and revenue growth. However, not all, for example, the state-owned enterprises sort of dogs, if you will. You have some incredible opportunities where you are seeing reforms being put through.

The leaders of industry such as steel, who are still producing, they're still seeing an uptick in margins. So, at the end of the day when investors are looking at Chinese names, it's all about the margin of safety.

Wall: Catherine, thank you very much.

Yeung: Thank you, Emma.

Wall: This is Emma Wall for Morningstar. Thank you for watching.

Video Archive...

Possible $2.5bn tailwind to drive hybrid demand in 2017
22/02/2017  Strong supply dynamics and ongoing economic stability should create significant opportunities for hybrid investors in 2017, according to John Likos, senior credit analyst, Morningstar Australia.
Earnings season wrap: Telstra feels competitive heat
17/02/2017  As the 1H17 earnings season rolls on, Wesfarmers posts a bumper profit, Newcrest restores its interim dividend, while Telstra's profit falls as it feels the heat of intense competition.
Earnings season wrap: Rio Tinto's dividend surprises
10/02/2017  Rio Tinto delivers a surprise full-year payout of US$1.70, NAB records a soft first quarter, and CIMIC posts an annual net profit in line with Morningstar's expectations.
Leveraging the opportunity of international students
07/02/2017  Co-founder and CEO of Navitas, Rod Jones, explains the firm's business model, which is built largely around international students and university partnerships.
Xero CFO gives outlook for 2017 and beyond
02/02/2017  Sankar Narayan, chief operating and financial officer of accounting software firm Xero gives his insights on the company's business model and outlook, with Morningstar analyst Gareth James adding his views
Asia growth engine not threatened by Trump, says Barings
30/01/2017  Long-term investors in China and wider Asian equities should not worry about President Trump, says Barings head of Asian equities Hjung Jin Lee.
Shifting fortunes for ANZ, more of the same for CBA in 2017
12/01/2017  Australian banks are well-positioned as they head into 2017, with ANZ moving from least profitable in 2016 to become one of the sector's top performers and CBA remaining an investor favourite.
Is Trump a threat to emerging markets?
12/01/2017  Is President Donald Trump a threat to emerging market returns? Paul Jackson from the UK-based Source ETF considers the outlook for sector and where investors can find the best opportunities.
Platinum, Aussie banks and Peter Warnes among top interviews of 2016
22/12/2016  We look back on some of our most notable interviews of the year, as Morningstar analysts and external experts helped us delve into some of the biggest events that shaped Australian and global markets in 2016.
Oil price finds sweet spot, while mining hits rock bottom
20/12/2016  The rise in oil prices should see improved performances from Australian producers in 2017, while mining services companies will continue to struggle amid weaker Chinese demand, says Morningstar equity analyst Mark Taylor.
How Greek mythology can make you a better investor
07/12/2016  Don't be over confident or follow the herd, and like Odysseus, learn to have yourself "tied to the mast" when it comes to long-term investing.
Supermarket headwinds prompt fair value cut for majors
06/12/2016  Growing competitive pressures and a declining revenue outlook for Australia's two grocery giants now look to be part of a longer-term, structural shift.
What returns should you expect from markets?
01/12/2016  As market risks rise, investors must adjust their profit expectations--gone are the days of 8 per cent returns. But there are still growth opportunities out there if you know where to look.
Why healthcare stocks got a bump from Trump
28/11/2016  Australian healthcare and pharmaceutical companies continue to enjoy a purple patch, and for various reasons including the recent US election result, explains Morningstar's healthcare equities analyst Chris Kallos.
Equity and hybrid investors react as bond prices tumble
24/11/2016  The negative correlation between bonds and equities is reasserting itself following the US election of Donald Trump, according to John Likos, Morningstar's senior credit analyst.
2 global themes that are finding favour among ETF investors
15/11/2016  Australian retail investors are increasingly turning to ETFs for specific tactical exposures to global themes, particularly in the context of large-scale market events such as US election 2016.
Maintain discipline and stick to fundamentals when selecting stocks
14/11/2016  Steer clear of fads, maintain a disciplined approach and focus on company fundamentals in building and maintaining your investment portfolio, says Anton Tagliaferro, investment director, Investors Mutual
How Trump could impact economic growth
10/11/2016  Slowdowns in trade and immigration could hold back the US, and infrastructure spending could boost GDP, but it's too early to make any major changes to our economic forecast, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
President Trump: What should you do?
10/11/2016  Donald Trump has beaten Hillary Clinton to become the 45th US president. What should investors do?
Software companies worth watching amid tech deployment phase
08/11/2016  Kate Howitt, portfolio manager at Fidelity International discusses some of the core phases in technological disruption and identifies software companies among those currently presenting opportunities.