US tariffs material but not world-ending

-- | 19/03/2018

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Mathew Hodge: Obviously, for the steel producers and aluminum producers who have got assets within America, it's pretty material. I mean, aluminum led to an uplift in the process and we published what we think is going to happen for BlueScope there. Our view is that it's more likely, was that it was more likely, that there would be some exemptions for allies and that seems to be playing out rather than just blanket tariffs across the board. So, we think that that's kind of playing out as we would expect so far.

In terms of the broader implication on the miners, I mean, it's really not a lot. I mean, if you look at the U.S. as a producer of mined commodities, they are not really a big player either way. Like, net-net, much of what they produce internally, they consume. So, they are not a big player on the import/export market and still, what happens in China is the biggest deal.

I mean, the key risk--and this is really still quite an outlier--is that if there is a trade war, and China has been a beneficiary of exporting a lot of things, could there be some blowback on demand for mined commodities in China. But I don't think that's anywhere near a base case at this stage.

This report appeared on 2021 Morningstar Australasia Pty Limited

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