Following my article analysing 164 ASX earnings results, I thought it was fitting to focus on where investors should look now. The data suggested that the market reactions from the results may have overshadowed what was a fundamentally resilient earnings season.

While share price reactions often dominate the headlines, they don’t always correctly reflect changes in a company’s underlying value. As a result, some of the most compelling opportunities emerge after the market has had time to digest the results.

The three ASX shares discussed below each have attractive valuations post earnings and exhibit sustainable competitive advantages over peers via their moats.

Where ASX opportunities are emerging

The recent earnings review found that underlying fundamentals were generally stronger than market reactions suggest. Fair value upgrades outnumbered downgrades by a comfortable margin, yet the average company still experienced a negative same-day share price reaction.

Average same-day share price move per analyst decision

There were stark examples of companies receiving valuation upgrades despite a negative market reaction and others rallying strongly despite little change to their intrinsic value. This disconnect between market sentiment and business fundamentals can create attractive opportunities for long term investors. With that in mind, here are three ASX shares that stand out from the data post earnings.

Amcor (ASX.AMC)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $85 (25% discount at 5 September)
  • Rating: ★★★★
  • Moat: Narrow

Amcor’s fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of USD 4.02 was at the top end of recently lowered guidance. The period was marred by macroeconomic weakness, particularly in the US, and cost inflation since the beginning of the Iran war. Excluding Berry, organic volumes fell 2% while price/mix was flat. We think this is a reasonable outcome given the backdrop.

The US Census reports grocery sales growth was about 1% in the same period, but Amcor also has sales in higher-end and discretionary categories, so we are not surprised by the slight volume pull-back.

The balance sheet is in better shape than we expected, following non-core asset sales. Net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 3.5 at June 30, 2026 is below our 3.8 estimate. We estimate it falling to 2.8 by the end of fiscal 2029.

We raise our fair value by 2% to $85 for narrow-moat Amcor on modestly higher sales growth and the time value of money. Shares trade at a lofty discount. We think the market fails to appreciate its strategy to expand in high-growth categories, such as healthcare and nutrition, aiding above-market share growth.

We previously cut expected fiscal 2027-29 dividends by 25% as the balance sheet seemed too stretched. But given our expectations for improved working capital and EBITDA, and a further noncore divestment, we think balance-sheet trembles have passed, providing scope for dividends to keep growing.

Spark New Zealand (ASX.SPK)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $3 (40% discount at 5 September)
  • Rating: ★★★★★
  • Moat: Narrow

Spark New Zealand delivered a 2% decline in fiscal 2026 EBITDA after investment income, or EBITDAI, to NZD 1.035 billion, meeting the midpoint of the guidance range. The board declared a final dividend per share of NZD 0.08, bringing the full-year total to NZD 0.16, 50% imputed.

The result assuaged market concerns, with shares drifting in recent months as if anticipating a miss. More importantly, we see positive dynamics elevating the prospects of earnings growth resumption and dividend maintainability at current high levels.

Data center field of dreams has been rightly abandoned, and the hotchpotch of digital services will no longer dilute management attention now that they are subject to “strategic review.” As such, focus is set to intensify on the mobile unit, the most attractive and highest margin within Spark.

Management is also likely to double down on cost-cutting—NZD 101 million has already been done of the NZD 110 million to NZD 140 million cost-reduction target by fiscal 2027. There is no better time to surprise investors by overdelivering on this goal, freed from nonconnectivity distractions.

We maintain our NZD 3.60/$3.00 fair value estimates on narrow-moat-rated Spark, as our earnings forecasts are largely intact. Our fiscal 2027 EBITDAI projection is NZD 1.052 billion, just above the midpoint of management’s NZD 1.010 billion to NZD 1.080 billion guidance.

Critically, management confidence is such that DPS guidance of NZD 0.16 to NZD 0.18 has been provided for fiscal 2027. At the low end, that equates to a yield of 7.4% even after Aug. 20’s 6% stock rally. We continue to view shares as undervalued, trading 40% below our intrinsic assessment.

Sonic Healthcare (ASX.SHL)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $27 (28% discount at 5 September)
  • Rating: ★★★★
  • Moat: Narrow

Sonic posted an 11% lift in fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA to $1.933 billion, with a slightly lower constant-currency amount comfortably within the guidance range. Fiscal 2027 EBITDA guidance has been set at $1.95 billion-$2.03 billion at constant currency.

While the result met our estimates, Sonic’s pathology unit faces headwinds in fiscal 2027. Regulatory changes in Switzerland are likely to cut EBITDA by $35 million on lower fees for some tests. Protracted integration of the already margin-dilutive HWE contract in the UK will weigh.

Indiscernible organic growth in the underperforming US unit remains a drag. It is little wonder the midpoint of the constant-currency EBITDA guidance range equates to growth of just $57 million, or 3%, even after including close to $30 million in restructuring benefits in the US.

All this is before the impact of adverse currency movements. If current spot rates hold, they could detract up to $50 million from fiscal 2027 EBITDA, wiping out much of the gain implied at the midpoint of the constant-currency guidance.

These headwinds force us to downgrade our fiscal 2027 underlying EBITDA by 6% to $1.945 billion. But the cuts are more moderate beyond and not enough to change our $27 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Sonic. Shares are trading 20% below our intrinsic assessment.

The negative response to the tepid near-term outlook has seen the shares give away much of the month-long rally heading into the result. However, we maintain our constructive longer-term view premised on EBITDA margin recovery to 19.2% midcycle, from 17.8% in fiscal 2026. Optimization initiatives are bearing fruit with more to come. And the balance sheet is in solid shape.

Subscribe to get Morningstar insights in your inbox