These three shares without sustainable competitive advantages are trading at the highest price to fair value according to our analysts. All three shares benefit from elevated commodity prices which we forecast to fall.

Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX : PRU)

Perseus’s fiscal 2026 NPAT increased 15% to USD 428 million or USD 31.5 cents per share. The stronger gold price more than offset lower sales volumes and higher unit cash costs. It declared an 80% higher unfranked final dividend of AUD 9 cents per share and again raised its share buyback program.

Why it matters: The result was broadly in line with our expectations. Increased cash returns to shareholders—it raised its target minimum dividend and is also considering paying a special distribution of about 7.5 cents per share—are likely why shares are 10% higher at the time of writing.

  • We raise our near-term forecast earnings per share by an average of 21%, driven by reduced unit cash costs, with guidance lower than we expected. This is partially offset by higher-than-expected capital expenditure, with forecast volumes little changed.

The bottom line: We raise no-moat Perseus’s fair value estimate by 7% to $3.20 per share. Shares trade around double our intrinsic assessment, likely due to the market expecting the gold price to remain elevated at around USD 4,700 per ounce, more than double our estimate of long-run cost support.

  • Many investors also may assume a lower cost of capital than we do. Its high exposure to sovereign risk—all its mines are in Africa—means we think shareholders require additional return commensurate with this risk.

Key stats: Increased cash returns to shareholders are sensible given its pristine balance sheet: it had around USD 1 billion in cash and bullion with no debt at end June 2026.

  • Free cash flow is also likely to rise as its Nyanzaga project in Tanzania is completed and starts production, likely in early 2027, before ramping up to produce an average of around 200,000 ounces per year.
  • We prefer higher dividends to share repurchases, as the latter are moderately value-destructive at the current share price. It is targeting buying back around 5% of its shares in fiscal 2027.

Perseus’ fair value increased, but elevated gold prices make shares expensive

Perseus Mining owns three gold mines in West Africa. All were purchased as exploration licenses or development projects. In 2004, the company purchased the Tengrela project in Ivory Coast that became its 86%-owned Sissingue mine. The exploration license that became its 90%-owned Edikan mine in Ghana was bought in 2006, with its 90%-owned Yaoure mine in Ivory Coast acquired as a development project via the merger with Amara Mining in 2016.

The purchase of Orca Gold in 2022 brought the 70%-owned Meyas Sand gold project in Sudan into its portfolio, but it was subsequently sold in 2026 due to civil unrest within the country. It also acquired Orecorp in fiscal 2024 and is developing its 80%-owned Nyanzaga gold project in Tanzania, with first production likely in early 2027.

We forecast Perseus to sell around 500,000 ounces of gold in fiscal 2031, similar to fiscal 2025 but up from about 400,000 in fiscal 2026. The development of Nyanzaga will likely offset falling volumes from its other mines. Though it is not our base case, it could potentially offset these mines’ reserve depletion through successful exploration or acquisitions of nearby deposits that could use their existing infrastructure. We expect Nyanzaga to produce around 200,000 ounces per year for more than a decade.

The company had about a decade of reserves at the end of fiscal 2026.

Its average all-in sustaining cost, or AISC, of around USD 1,750 per ounce for fiscal 2026 places it near the bottom of the second quartile of the gold industry cost curve, at around the 30th percentile.

Perseus’ focus is on Africa, with the goal of owning three to four gold mines with remaining lives of at least a decade. It is targeting maintaining production at around 500,000 ounces per year and prefers to buy assets at the predevelopment stage and subsequently develop them.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

Evolution’s adjusted net profit after tax of $1.6 billion rose 63% in fiscal 2026 versus the previous year. Soaring realized gold and copper prices more than offset lower volumes and higher unit costs. A final dividend of 21 cents per share was declared, up 62% on a higher 60% payout.

Why it matters: Profit broadly met our expectations. We reduce our near-term EPS forecasts by an average of 4% after guidance for lower near-term production than expected, but our longer-term production forecasts are little changed.

  • We also reduce expected unit costs over our forecast period, partially offset by higher capital expenditure, after incorporating guidance.

The bottom line: We increase no-moat Evolution’s fair value estimate by 7% to $4.80, driven by higher expected midcycle margins. Shares are very expensive due to the incredible gold and copper bull markets, with the market expecting spot prices to remain materially above our midcycle assumptions.

  • Shares offer a relatively low 3.3% forward yield. Our near-term DPS forecasts rise by an average of 19% after it increased its target payout ratio to 60% of cash flow, from 50%. Higher dividends are preferable to share buybacks given that the shares are expensive.

Big picture: Given very strong prices and sentiment, using its strong balance sheet—it was in a small net cash position at the end of June 2026—to focus on organic growth while increasing cash returns to shareholders is sensible.

  • Value-accretive acquisitions are likely to be difficult to identify at this point in the cycle for both metals. Although its overvalued shares could be used to buy a less overvalued asset, as it did recently in agreeing to purchase copper developer Carnaby Resources.
  • In any case, it needs to invest in extending and expanding existing mines to offset reserve depletion, given its short reserve life of roughly a decade.

Raising Evolution’s fair value by 7%; Shares expensive as the gold and copper bull markets continue

Evolution Mining owns 100% of four gold mines in Australia and one in Canada. In December 2023, it also bought an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold mine in New South Wales. Its portfolio is the result of numerous transactions since forming in 2011 via the merger of Conquest Mining and Catalpa Resources and the purchase of Newcrest Mining’s Mt Rawdon and Cracow mines. Cowal and Mungari were purchased in 2015, with an initial interest in Glencore’s Ernest Henry mine following in 2016, Red Lake in Canada in 2020, the rest of Ernest Henry in 2022, and a majority stake in Northparkes in 2023. Cracow was sold in 2020.

We forecast Evolution to increase gold sales to about 850,000 ounces in fiscal 2031, up from 710,000 ounces in fiscal 2026, driven by various growth projects across its portfolio. Its Cowal, Mungari, and Red Lake mines account for about 85% of midcycle gold sales in fiscal 2031. The company’s all-in sustaining costs including byproduct credits of roughly AUD 1,720—around USD 1,220—per ounce for fiscal 2026 (excluding Mt Rawdon, which is near the end of its life) places it comfortably within the first quartile of the gold industry cost curve. As of the end of December 2025, the company had roughly 15 years of gold and copper reserves.

We also forecast the company to sell about 80,000 metric tons of copper in fiscal 2031, up from 65,000 in fiscal 2026, driven by higher production at Ernest Henry. Copper adds some diversification, accounting for around 25% of midcycle revenue in fiscal 2031.

Evolution is targeting owning up to eight mines in jurisdictions with low sovereign risk, such as Australia and Canada. Its focus is mainly on gold, as well as copper, aiming to purchase assets from motivated sellers and subsequently increase reserves and mine lives through exploration and development.

Newmont Corp Chess Depository Interest (ASX: NEM)

Barrick’s second-quarter adjusted NPAT is up 70% on a year ago, to USD 1.4 billion or USD 0.82 per share. The stronger gold price and slightly higher sales volumes more than offset increased unit costs. But shares fell 6% as it also settled its dispute with Newmont over Nevada Gold Mines, or NGM.

Why it matters: Newmont alleged Barrick had mismanaged their Nevada joint venture. While we aren’t privy to the details, the dispute may have helped Newmont to reduce the price to buy a share of Barrick’s attractive Fourmile deposit, which is now included in NGM.

  • The share price decline—in contrast to the 4% rise in no-moat Newmont shares—is likely due to the market ascribing blue sky to Fourmile given the very positive sentiment in gold and impressive high-grade resource found so far.
  • Barrick is on track. First-half sales volumes and unit costs broadly align with our unchanged full-year estimates. Volumes are likely rising in the second half. Guidance is reiterated except for reduced capital expenditure on its Reko Diq project in Pakistan as it reviews the development.

The bottom line: Spot gold is materially above long-term consensus of about USD 3,600, let alone our lower estimate for midcycle cost support at about USD 2,050. This difference likely drives the 40% premium at which shares trade to our unchanged USD 29 fair value for no-moat Barrick.

  • Fourmile is potentially a large, low-cost, long-life mine that would likely be very profitable at the current gold price of about USD 4,400 per ounce. However, a prefeasibility study is still being worked on—due in 2029—with first production likely in 2030 at the earliest.
  • We assume it will be developed given exploration results to date.

Coming up: Barrick’s intention to demerge and spin off its stakes in NGM and Pueblo Viejo likely gave Newmont leverage. With Newmont now consenting to the IPO, North American Barrick will likely list by the end of 2026. We expect Barrick to sell a 10% to 15% stake in it at the IPO.

Lower near-term assumed gold prices drive a reduction in Newmont’s fair value

Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, with a portfolio reflecting three major deals in recent years. First, it acquired fellow gold producer Goldcorp for a relatively mild premium in 2019. Not only did it avoid paying a high price, Newmont also extracted better performance at mines where Goldcorp struggled.

Second, it combined its crown jewel Nevada assets with Barrick Gold’s in a joint venture called Nevada Gold Mines, also in 2019. With Barrick as the operator, Newmont owns 38.5% of the partnership. It also acquired Australian-based gold miner Newcrest in 2023.

We forecast Newmont to increase attributable gold sales volumes from its continuing portfolio to around 6.2 million ounces in 2030, up from roughly 5.7 million in 2025 and 5.3 million in 2026. The increase is driven by higher gold production from its 38.5% and 40% stakes in the NGM and Pueblo Viejo joint ventures with Barrick, respectively, Lihir, Tanami, and Boddington. As part of bedding down the Newcrest acquisition, Newmont sold a number of its higher-cost, smaller mines in 2024 and 2025. These mines accounted for around 20% of total volumes in 2024.

It also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts from its various gold mines. Newmont had about two decades of gold reserves along with significant byproduct reserves at end December 2025.

In aggregate, the company sits around the middle of the cost curve but we expect some improvement.