Firstlinks Edition 489
2023 outlooks: Bill Evans, Robert Almeida, John Woods; Meg's SMSF predictions; Shared equity mortgages; Netflix trouncing rivals; Collectibles.
In this week's edition ...
After a 2022 to forget, what will 2023 bring? Bill Evans thinks inflation will prove sticky in Australia and interest rates will rise in the first half of the year before plateauing in the second half. He sees rate cuts beginning in 2024 as the economy stalls and unemployment rises.
Robert Almeida predicts inflation will fall sooner than what Bill does, and that's good news for fixed income. It won't be as good for stocks though as it'll bring a long overdue profit margin reset.
Australian Ethical's John Woods agrees with Robert's views on inflation as all the key indicators he looks at suggest it's going to fall. He's also a bull on defensive assets such as bonds and infrastructure. These assets should help the portfolios of conservative investors such as retirees.
And in this week's white paper, Fidelity International offers its 2023 outlook for everything from the macroeconomic backdrop to all the key asset classes.
Meanwhile, Meg Heffron is back, and she has a bone to pick. She says that while the Labor government left SMSFs alone in the October budget, it might be a different story come next May's budget. Meg suspects there might be something designed to break up large SMSFs.
Shared equity mortgages have been talked about for years, but it's been left to governments to develop initiatives in this area. John Kavanagh reports that things changed this year.
Alex Pollak of Loftus Peak says streaming is disrupting the way TV is consumed and it's likely that all TV will be streamed within ten years. Alex believes Netflix, irrespective of the naysayers, remains the only game in town when it comes to profitably running a streaming service.
Finally, in the spirit of reflection at this time of year, we reprise Graham Hand's 2021 article on collectibles. Recently, the collector featured in the story, John Quick, had this to say:
"Dear reader, I still cannot believe the generosity of Graham and often go back and follow the stories of other collectors. I have been very fortunate that I have had quite a few collections gifted to me since this article was printed. Collecting offers so many positives including meeting like mind people who share the passion.
Not everything is about money. I still get a buzz from finding that elusive card or two which has been sent to me by people who are down sizing or have simply lost the interest and passion of collecting.
Of course, there are many who are no longer with us but there are still people out there who go to the trouble to seek out collectors and move collections on. Better to move things on than to see them go into land fill.
Happy collecting to all you collectors out there Cheers......John"
Merry Christmas everyone and thank you for supporting Firstlinks.