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Global Market Report - 21 October

Lex Hall  |  21 Oct 2019Text size  Decrease  Increase  |  
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Australia

The Australian share market is expected to open in negative territory after Wall Street finished lower at the end of last week.

The SPI200 futures contract was down 14 points, or 0.21 per cent, at 6,602.0 at 8am Sydney time, suggesting a fall for the benchmark S&P/ASX200 on Monday.

On Wall Street on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.95 per cent, the S&P 500 was down 0.39 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.83 per cent.

The Australian share market fallen for a second day on Friday, with losses across the board as hopes dimmed for fourth cash rate cut.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished Friday down 35 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 6,758.4 points, while the broader All Ordinaries was down 33.1 points, or 0.49 per cent, to 6,622 points.

The Aussie dollar is buying 68.47 US cents from 68.31 US cents on Friday.The Australian share market is likely to open softer on Monday with international weakness after US and European markets closed lower.

AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver suspects local markets will open between 10 to 15 points lower in line with share futures, which this morning were pointing to a 14 point fall.

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“It looks like a softish start at the open but not overly bad,” Dr Oliver said.

The US market was dragged down by bad news over Boeing and the 737 Max, but the fall didn’t have much to do with Australia, he said.

US markets this week will be largely focused on earnings, with results expected from giants including Microsoft and Amazon.

Dr Oliver says locally it’s expected to be a relatively quiet week but there will be an RBA speech on Wednesday that will be examined for hints on monetary policy. Investors will be watching for Australia data for skilled vacancies on Wednesday and for continuing signs of improvement on Thursday from CBA’s business conditions PMIs for October.

The main focus globally will be the ongoing saga of Brexit to see whether the Europeans will extend the date and how the UK parliamentary vote goes on Boris Johnson’s deal with the EU.

“The other thing that might impact markets is any news on ongoing negotiations between the US and China on trade,” Dr Oliver said.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished at 6602 or 0.52 per cent behind on Friday but was still 42.9 points, or 0.65 per cent higher than it started the week.

Third-quarter earnings season hit full stride, with 73 companies in the S&P 500 having reported.

Of those, 83.6 per cent have come in above average estimates.

Still, analysts currently see S&P 500 earnings dropping by 3.1 per cent compared with last year, which would mark the first contraction since the earnings recession that ended mid-2016.

Asia

Shares in China and Hong Kong fell following the release of worse-than-expected GDP figures for China, which were compounded by the ongoing trade war.

China released third-quarter GDP figures on Friday showing the economy grew 6.0 per cent from a year ago — weaker than analyst expectations for 6.1 per cent.

The Shanghai composite fell 1.32 per cent to close at 2,938.14.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 0.72 per cent.

Japan’s Nikkei hit a 10-month high on Friday after high-tech companies jumped on upbeat earnings from Taiwan’s TSMC while the broader market ended lower, succumbing to profit-taking after weaker-than-expected Chinese GDP data.

The Nikkei share average rose 0.18 per cent to 22,492.68, its highest finish since early December last year, pulling back from rising as much as 0.88 per cent earlier. For the week, the Nikkei was up 3.18 per cent.

Europe

Gloomy earnings reports from French carmaker Renault and food group Danone drove European shares lower on Friday, rounding off a tumultuous week that left investors waiting anxiously for the next twist in the Brexit saga.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index finished 0.3 per cent lower and Paris-listed shares .FCHI lagged the most with a 0.65 per cent decline, hit by weak quarterly results.

Renault dropped 11.5 per cent to become the biggest decliner on the STOXX 600, after the company cut its full-year revenue and profit forecast, the latest to suffer in an auto market downturn.

The warning pushed the wider auto and auto parts index .SXAP to its biggest percentage drop in two-and-a-half weeks, with added pressure from Sweden’s Volvo AB forecasting a demand slump on both sides of the North Atlantic next year.

Volvo’s shares settled up 2.4 per cent after falling as much as 5 per cent as investors chose to focus on its forecast-beating earnings.

The biggest drag on the main index was an 8.4 per cent decline the shares of Danone after the world’s biggest yoghurt maker cut its 2019 sales growth, dragging Europe’s food & beverage index down down 1.4 per cent

Friday’s losses pulled the STOXX 600 lower for a third straight session to end flat on a week dominated by Brexit headlines.

Boris Johnson struck a Brexit deal with the European Union on Thursday, sending the benchmark index to its highest in more than a year, but concerns remain about the deal getting through the British parliament.

After a solid increase in the first quarter, gains in the STOXX 600 index have tapered off in the second and third. Fresh data on Friday showed China’s economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter.

Investor focus now turns to the third-quarter earnings season, which kicks off in earnest next week. An earnings recession in Europe is expected to deepen in the third quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Thales, the largest European defence electronics company, dropped 5.4 per cent after lowering its 2019 revenue growth forecast, but a strong report from Swedish medical technology group Getinge sent its shares jumping 16 per cent.

London Stock Exchange rose 0.8 per cent after reporting a higher-than-expected third-quarter income ahead of the planned shareholder vote on its deal to buy data provider Refinitiv.

Shares in AMS fell nearly 5 per cent after Bloomberg reported the Austrian sensor maker was planning to discuss a renewed bid for Osram following the failure of its first attempt.

London-listed shares .FTSE were dragged lower by Holiday Inn-owner InterContinental Hotels Group, which fell 4.6 per cent after reporting a fall in third-quarter revenue per room.

North America

Wall Street fell on Friday as negative headlines about Johnson & Johnson and Boeing, along with bleak economic data from China, soured investor risk appetite and offset generally positive corporate earnings.

All three major US stock averages ended the session in the red, but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted weekly gains. The blue-chip Dow was nominally lower than last week’s close.

Boeing Co and Johnson & Johnson shares led both the S&P 500’s and the Dow’s declines.

Boeing dropped 6.8 per cent after Reuters reported that text messages between two employees suggested the planemaker misled the Federal Aviation Administration about the safety of the grounded 737 MAX aircraft.

Johnson & Johnson announced it would recall baby powder in the United States after regulators found trace amounts of asbestos in a sample, sending its shares falling 6.2 per cent.

Growth of China’s gross domestic product slowed to its weakest pace in nearly 30 years as the bruising trade war with the United States took its toll, stoking fears of slowdown contagion.

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for global growth this year to 3.0 per cent, which would mark the slowest expansion since the financial crisis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 255.68 points, or 0.95 per cent, to 26,770.2, the S&P 500 lost 11.75 points, or 0.39 per cent, to 2,986.2 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.31 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 8,089.54.

Third-quarter earnings season hit full stride, with 73 companies in the S&P 500 having reported.

Of those, 83.6 per cent have come in above average estimates.

Still, analysts currently see S&P 500 earnings dropping by 3.1 per cent compared with last year, which would mark the first contraction since the earnings recession that ended mid-2016.

Schlumberger NV gained 1.3 per cent after the oilfield services company posted its largest quarterly loss ever as a result of a $US12 billion charge as chief executive Olivier Le Peuch moved to shift focus toward software and services.

American Express Co reported better-than-expected third-quarter profit as consumers boosted their spending. Still, the credit card issuer’s shares dipped 2.0 per cent.

Coca-Cola Co’s revenue beat expectations and an upbeat forecast gave its shares a 1.8 per cent boost.

Kansas City Southern jumped 7.3 per cent after the railway operator also beat profit expectations, on increased petroleum shipments to Mexico.

Next week, market participants look forward to high profile results from Procter & Gamble Co, United Parcel Service, Caterpillar, Boeing, Microsoft, Ford Motor Co, 3M Co, Twitter, Amazon.com, and others.

is senior editor for Morningstar Australia

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