Morningstar Investor users sign in here.


Magellan stumbles (again), cash rate at 2% by December and commodities rally: What we learned this week

Cabbage-gate at KFC and miners replace tech stocks in the ASX 200

Investors exit Magellan as Douglass returns (sort of)

Magellan’s share price crashed 14% on Monday after announcing funds under management fell 5.2% in May, down to $65 billion. That figure stood at $117 billion last August. Outflows spread to the Australian equities portfolio, which has been a rare area of growth this year. Adding insult to injury, the ASX announced the same day that the fund manager would be booted from the S&P/ASX100 come 20 June. Shares lifted slightly on Thursday after Magellan announced talisman Hamish Douglass would return as a consultant in October.

Elon Musk walks back staff cut threats

The Tesla chief executive sent an email to employees late last week saying that he will be reducing salaried headcount by 10%. Investors panicked at a possible sign production would fall and Tesla shares dropped 9%. The tech billionaire took to Twitter over the weekend to calm nerves, saying “total headcount will increase, but salaried should be fairly flat.”

Kentucky Fried Cabbage?

KFC is suffering from the effects of shortages and inflation just like us. The fast-food chain announced it will use a “lettuce and cabbage blend” in all products that contain lettuce until further notice. Why? A lettuce shortage has sent prices up 300% to $10 a head. Floods on the East coast are decimating lettuce supplies. Zinger lovers will need to be patient as KFC hasn’t said when lettuce supplies will reappear.


A quick poll


Expect a cash rate north of 2% this year

Analysts are rushing to hike cash rate forecasts after the Reserve Bank unveiled some hawkish feathers. Following the RBA’s surprise 0.5% increase—the largest since 2000—HSBC, JPMorgan, Westpac and Commonwealth Bank are now predicting another meaty 50 basis points next month. Commonwealth Bank now expects the cash rate to hit 2.1% in December, up from 1.3% prior to the meeting.

ASX 200 evicts major players in June rebalance

Appen, Platinum Asset Management and Tyro Payments are leaving the S&P/ASX 200 in a reshuffle that reflects the ongoing commodity boom. Three out of four new additions are miners: Core Lithium, Lake Resources and coal digger New Hope. The changes will take effect on 20 June. Appen Platinum Asset Management and Tyro Payments have had a hard time this year with share prices falling 38%, 51% and 69%, respectively since January.

As they say - out with the old and in with the new.

Global gloom

Global economic watchdogs the OCED and the World Bank are increasingly downbeat about growth. The Mathias Cormann-helmed OECD slashed global growth to 3% in 2022, down from 4.5%. The World Bank is saying 2.9%. Yikes. Both institutions blame fallout from the war in Ukraine for stoking inflation and curbing growth across the world.

Commodity prices rally

A mainstay commodity index hit an all-time high this week driven by a jump in natural gas and wheat prices as traders fretted about supply disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 23 commodities is up 37% this year. Brent crude oil prices also jumped 4.6% this week as easing covid restrictions in China bolstered demand.

ASX has worst week in over two years: Market Recap with AAP

The Australian share market has suffered its worst week in more than two years after another major drop and slumped to its lowest closing level in 14 months.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished Friday down 87.7 points to 6,932.0, a fall of 1.25%. The ASX200 declined 4.24% for the week, its worst performance since the week ending 24 April 2020, after declining every day except Wednesday. Its close was its lowest since April 7, 2021.

"Quite a pullback, obviously," said CommSec market analyst Stephen Daghlian.

"To be honest, it's not overly surprising, given what we saw from the Reserve Bank," which raised interest rates more aggressively than many were expecting on Tuesday.

The financial sector declined 9.0% for the week, its worst loss since March 2020, the beginning of the pandemic.

All the big banks gave up their morning gains and finished lower on Friday, with the biggest, Commonwealth, close to a one-year low at $93.78. CBA was down 1.2% on the day and 10.7% on the week.

Westpac fell 1.5% to $20.85, ANZ dropped 1.2% to $23.07 and NAB retreated 0.7% to $28.06. National Australia Bank is down 10.3% fall in the past five days.

Property was the worst performer on Friday, down 2.9%. The sector has also suffered its worst week since March 2020 with a 7.0% drop.

Every sector was lower, with energy—the one area that has held up lately—fell 1.6% even as Brent crude hovered around US$122 a barrel. Woodside was down 1.6% and Santos fell 1.5%.

Tiny Bubs Australia was a rare bright spot on the market, gaining 9.2% to 65 cents after advising that the air cargo flight of baby formula chartered by the US government would be purchased by American supermarket giants Krogers and Albertsons. Bubs formula is being imported on an emergency basis to help relieve a major infant food shortage in the US.

Blue chip movers for the week

  • Magellan Financial Group ↓ 17.8%.
  • Telstra ↓ 3.1%.
  • AGL ↓ 0.5%.
  • Supermarkets: Woolworths ↓ 0.9% / Coles ↓ 2%.
  • Resources: Rio Tinto ↓ 0.1% / BHP ↓ 1.6% / Fortescue metals ↓ 0.1%.
  • Big Banks: NAB ↓ 10.3% / Westpac ↓ 13.1% / CBA ↓ 10.9% / ANZ ↓ 7.8%.


  • Tuesday: NAB Business confidence survey. Watch for signs business is balking at higher prices.
  • Wednesday:
    • Westpac Consumer Confidence. Watch to see if inflation fears are souring people on the economy.
    • Chinese industrial production for May; important for iron ore demand.
  • Thursday:
    • Local unemployment numbers for May. Watch for the health of the labour market
  • Friday (AEST): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Markets expect another 0.5% hike. Watch press conference for hints as to what the Fed will do next.

One good read

Does nuclear energy make sense for Australia?

© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Neither Morningstar, its affiliates, nor the content providers guarantee the data or content contained herein to be accurate, complete or timely nor will they have any liability for its use or distribution. This report has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or New Zealand wholesale clients of Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. Any general advice has been provided without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide at You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Our publications, ratings and products should be viewed as an additional investment resource, not as your sole source of information. Morningstar’s full research reports are the source of any Morningstar Ratings and are available from Morningstar or your adviser. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a financial adviser. Some material is copyright and published under licence from ASX Operations Pty Ltd ACN 004 523 782.

More from Morningstar
Global Markets Report - 29 February
Global Markets Report - 29 February
ASX set to open lower, after all major US benchmarks ended Wednesday down, Bitcoin surges.
Global Markets Report - 28 February
Global Markets Report - 28 February
ASX set to open higher, with the S&P 500 rising led by gains in utilities stocks.
Global Markets Report - 27 February
Global Markets Report - 27 February
ASX set to open lower, with the Nvidia-led rally stalling on Wall Street.
Are markets broken?
Are markets broken?
Famed investor David Einhorn says passive investing has broken markets and it's forced him to change his investment style to stay in business. How...
Global Markets Report - 26 February
Global Markets Report - 26 February
ASX set to open higher, while Wall Street ended the week flat with Nvidia approaching $2 trillion market cap.
Global Markets Report - 23 February
Global Markets Report - 23 February
ASX set to open higher, as Wall Street responds positively to Nvidia earnings.