Key Morningstar metrics for Berkshire Hathaway

  • Morningstar Rating: 3 stars
  • Fair Value Estimate (BRK.A): $700000.00
  • Fair Value Estimate (BRK.B): $467.00
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Low
  • Economic Moat: Narrow

What we thought of Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings

With narrow-moat-rated BRK.A BRK.B reporting adjusted third-quarter operating results that were more or less in our range of expectations for the quarter, we are leaving our $700,000 ($467) per Class A (B) share fair value estimate in place for Berkshire stock.

Third-quarter revenue, including unrealized and realized gains/losses from Berkshire’s investment portfolios, increased 78.9% to $113.5 billion from $63.4 billion in the year-ago period. Excluding the impact of investment gains/losses and other adjustments, third-quarter operating revenue declined 0.2% year over year to $93.7 billion.

Operating earnings, exclusive of investment gains/losses, decreased 6.2% year over year to $10.1 billion during the September quarter as insurance underwriting results were negatively affected by both accrued losses tied to Hurricane Helene, as well as a reassessment of claims liabilities at Guard insurance companies, during the third quarter. When including the impact of the investment gains/losses, reported operating earnings increased to $26.3 billion from negative $12.8 billion in the prior year’s period.

Book value per share, which still serves as a decent proxy for measuring changes in Berkshire’s intrinsic value, increased 6.7% sequentially and 23.0% year over year to $446,906.

This was due in a large part to improvements in the company’s insurance operations as well as its equity investment portfolio.

As for the insurance investment portfolio, Berkshire reported $4.5 billion of pre-tax investment income during the third quarter. This was up 56.6% from $2.9 billion in the year-ago period as Berkshire lifted its stake in Treasury Bills to $288.0 billion at the end of September 2024 from $126.4 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2023.

That said, the company’s stock holdings declined to $271.7 billion ($301.8 billion when including its equity method investments in Occidental Petroleum and Kraft Heinz) from $318.6 billion at the end of September 2023, owing in a large part to Berkshire cutting its stake in Apple by more than 50% and reducing its holding in Bank of America by 25% this year.

First quarter without Berkshire stock repurchases since 2018

The company closed out the third quarter with a record $325.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up from $276.9 billion at the end of June 2024 (due primarily to $36.1 billion of net sales from its stock holdings as free cash flow turned negative during the quarter).

Unfortunately, Berkshire did not repurchase any shares during the third quarter, the first time that the company has not bought back stock since CEO Warren Buffett started repurchasing shares on a more regular basis in the third quarter of 2018. We were not too surprised, as the shares have hewed relatively close to our fair value estimate for much of the year and exceeded those levels in the third quarter.

Berkshire, by our estimates, had around $282.4 billion in dry powder on hand at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024 that could be committed to investments, acquisitions, and share repurchases.

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Terms used in this article

Moat Rating: An economic moat is a structural feature that allows a firm to sustain excess profits over a long period. Companies with a narrow moat are those we believe are more likely than not to sustain excess returns for at least a decade. For wide-moat companies, we have high confidence that excess returns will persist for 10 years and are likely to persist at least 20 years. To learn about finding different sources of moat, read this article by Mark LaMonica.

Fair Value: Morningstar’s Fair Value estimate results from a detailed projection of a company's future cash flows, resulting from our analysts' independent primary research. Price To Fair Value measures the current market price against estimated Fair Value. If a company’s stock trades at $100 and our analysts believe it is worth $200, the price to fair value ratio would be 0.5. A Price to Fair Value over 1 suggests the share is overvalued.

Uncertainty Rating: Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating is designed to capture the range of potential outcomes for a company. An investor can think of this as the underlying risk of the business. For higher risk businesses with wider ranges of potential outcomes an investor should consider a larger margin of safety or difference between the estimate of what a share is worth and how much an investor pays. This rating is used to assign the margin of safety required before investing, which in turn explicitly drives our stock star rating system. The Uncertainty Rating is aimed at identifying the confidence we should have in assigning a fair value estimate for a stock. Read more about business risk and margin of safety here.

Star Rating: Our one- to five-star ratings are guideposts to a broad audience and individuals must consider their own specific investment goals, risk tolerance, and several other factors. A five-star rating means our analysts think the current market price likely represents an excessively pessimistic outlook and that beyond fair risk-adjusted returns are likely over a long timeframe. A one-star rating means our analysts think the market is pricing in an excessively optimistic outlook, limiting upside potential and leaving the investor exposed to capital loss.