Fourth-quarter earnings have been largely solid across US markets, with Morningstar analysts raising their fair value estimates for a number of stocks. The names with the largest increases are flash memory chip producer SanDisk NDK and semiconductor testing firm Teradyne TER.

Despite lingering concerns about the durability of the artificial intelligence trade, related hardware names dominated the list of companies with the largest fair value increases. Eight of the 10 stocks on the list operate in the semiconductor, computer hardware, or electrical component industries.

At the time of writing, 92% of the 835 US-listed stocks covered by Morningstar estimates have reported earnings, with major holdouts—including Broadcom AVGO, Adobe ADBE, and Oracle ORCL—scheduled to report in March. There was a 3.3% average increase in fair value estimate during the fourth-quarter earnings season, above last quarter’s 2.5% average.

Among the stocks screened for valuation changes, 13.1% saw increases of 10.0% or more—higher than the previous quarter’s 11.5% rate and the highest rate in four years. Over the past 10 years, 7.9% of the group had average quarterly fair value estimate increases of 10.0% or more.

The basic materials and industrial sectors saw the highest rate of increases. Roughly 29.0% of basic material stocks saw a fair value increase of at least 10.0% after fourth-quarter earnings, and the average increase was 3.6%. Among industrial companies, 24.8% had fair value increases of at least 10.0% and the average increase was 6.3%.

The sector with the highest average increase was technology, at 6.7%. Among tech companies, 20.1% saw a fair value increase of at least 10.0%.

Here are the stocks with the largest percentage increases in their fair value estimates:

  1. Sandisk SNDK: $670 from $135
  2. Teradyne TER: $250 from $140
  3. Applied Materials AMAT: $380 from $225
  4. Western Digital WDC: $277 from $165
  5. Corning GLW: $95 from $60
  6. United Airlines UAL: $98 from $62
  7. Seagate Technology STX: $375 from $250
  8. Bloom Energy BE: $60 from $42
  9. Monolithic Power Systems MPWR: $1300 from $920
  10. Societe Generale SCGLY: $15.00 from $10.70

Here’s what Morningstar analysts had to say about each stock.

Sandisk

  • Fair Value Estimate: $670.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 396%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Economic Moat: None

“Sandisk’s December-quarter results and March-quarter guidance blew all expectations out of the water. December earnings doubled FactSet consensus estimates, while March-quarter earnings guidance is more than triple the consensus estimate.

“High demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and relatively fixed NAND supply are driving prices through the roof. We expect supply constraints to endure until at least 2028, generating significant price, revenue, and margin growth for Sandisk.

“We raise our fair value estimate for no-moat Sandisk to $670 per share, from $135, as we integrate a more aggressive pricing forecast through 2028. Shares rose 20% on the print, and look fairly valued to us at our new valuation.”

—William Kerwin, senior equity analyst

Teradyne

  • Fair Value Estimate: $250.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 79%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★
  • Economic Moat: Wide

“Teradyne’s fourth-quarter results were strong, and guidance into 2026 was even more impressive. First-quarter revenue guidance was nearly 25% above FactSet consensus estimates, and Teradyne’s updated long-term financial model implies significant share gains in compute chip testing.

“We’re increasingly optimistic about Teradyne’s ability to capture strong AI investment in the medium term. The firm already holds a strong position in memory and custom application-specific integrated circuit testing, and we expect new inroads to GPU testing at Nvidia NVDA to propel further growth in 2027 and beyond.

“We raised our fair value estimate for wide-moat Teradyne to $250 from $140, reflecting a stronger AI growth cycle over the next five years. Shares rose more than 10% intraday following the release, and the stock looks modestly overvalued to us.”

—William Kerwin

Applied Materials

  • Fair Value Estimate: $380.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 69%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Economic Moat: Wide

“Applied Materials reported strong January-quarter results and provided an impressive outlook for calendar 2026. Management expects more than 20% growth in equipment sales in 2026, aligning with peer Lam Research’s LRCX market commentary provided in late January.

“We expect a massive wafer fabrication equipment, or WFE, growth cycle over the next three years. Artificial intelligence infrastructure demand is immense, and supply is scarce. We expect a rapid pace of chip capacity buildouts over the coming years to fuel great demand for Applied.

“We raise our fair value estimate for wide-moat Applied to $380 per share from $225, to account for our higher AI growth cycle forecast. Shares rose 13% after hours on the 2026 outlook, and look fairly valued at our new valuation.”

—William Kerwin

Western Digital

  • Fair Value Estimate: $277.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 68%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Economic Moat: None

“Similar to peer Seagate, current quarterly results were solid, but what was even more important was the outlook. The guide for the next quarter implies incremental gross margins will remain above 60%, while the company likely adds another $200 million of incremental revenue.

“In our previous update, we predicted that pricing would turn even more positive, and it did: our estimated average price per terabyte increased by over 2% in the quarter. Management commentary on the stability of the pricing environment was also positive. This could last a while.”

—Eric Compton, director of equity research

Corning

  • Fair Value Estimate: $95.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 58%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★
  • Economic Moat: Narrow

“Corning and Meta Platforms META announced a long-term supply agreement for optical fiber cable, targeting up to $6 billion in sales through 2030. Corning will expand its optical fiber capacity in North Carolina significantly. It will release fourth-quarter results on Jan. 28.

“This $6 billion in revenue over the next five years materially eclipses our prior total fiber growth expectations. We modeled $5 billion in annual fiber sales growth in 2030 versus 2025; we expect most of the $6 billion for Meta to be incremental to that forecast.

“We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Corning to $95 per share from $60, with $5 billion in incremental sales through 2030. We raise our Morningstar Uncertainty Rating to High from Medium to account for AI spending risk. Shares rose 15% intraday on Jan. 27 and look modestly overvalued.”

—William Kerwin

United Airlines Holdings

  • Fair Value Estimate: $98.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 58%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Economic Moat: None

“United Airlines is doing well, having established similar premium segmentation and loyalty offerings as those of Delta Air Lines DAL, and as long as their premium customers remain loyal and not too frugal, we think these airlines can continue to prosper, sharing the bulk of industry profits.

“We have increased our fair value estimate for no-moat United’s shares to $98 from $62, reflecting its industry-leading revenue yield, which we believe may persist in the medium term as unprofitable competing flight capacity exits the US domestic network.

“Even with our forecast of nearly $9.4 billion in EBITDAR in 2026, United’s shares seem overvalued, as we do not anticipate that market conditions will allow the airline to maintain such outsize profits indefinitely.”

—Nicolas Owens, equity analyst

Seagate Technology

  • Fair Value Estimate: $375.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 50%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Economic Moat: None

“Seagate’s revenue grew 22% year over year, while gross margins improved another 210 basis points quarter over quarter. We expected Seagate to beat guidance and consensus, and it did.

“While current results were exceptionally strong, we felt the outlook was even stronger. We believe the guide for next quarter implies gross margins are likely to expand nearly 300 basis points sequentially, implying incremental gross margins of nearly 100%. This is extraordinary.

“AI-related data demand is already off the charts, and there is no sign it will slow down soon. Meanwhile, pricing is already locked in through 2026 and is starting to lock in for 2027. Even if density improvements add close to 30% in exabytes annually, demand could still exceed this.”

—Eric Compton

Bloom Energy

  • Fair Value Estimate: $60.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 43%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★
  • Economic Moat: None

“Bloom Energy reported fourth-quarter revenue of $778 million and non-GAAP operating margin of 17%. 2026 guidance is for revenue of $3.2 billion, up more than 50% year on year, and non-GAAP operating margin of 14%. We viewed expectations as high heading into results, but the numbers surpassed our and the market’s expectations.

“We are increasing our fair value estimate for Bloom Energy to $60 per share from $42 after raising our long-term revenue forecast following 2026 guidance and backlog disclosures.

“We maintain our Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating as Bloom remains a high-risk/high-reward investment on artificial intelligence data center time to power needs. The multi-gigawatt size of AI data centers relative to the size of Bloom (less than 1 gigawatt to be shipped in 2026) means that a few large data center deals could have a material impact on the firm’s financials.”

—Brett Castelli, senior equity analyst

Monolithic Power Systems

  • Fair Value Estimate: $1,300.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 41%
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Economic Moat: Wide

“Monolithic Power’s fourth-quarter revenue beat the top end of management’s guidance, and first-quarter guidance exceeded FactSet consensus expectations. Management guided to more than 50% enterprise data revenue growth in 2026, well above the prior range of 30%-40%.”

“Monolithic Power is unflappable regardless of the market environment, winning designs and taking market share. Non-AI growth led the results in 2025, with markets outside of enterprise data rising 40%. In 2026, we expect AI-related revenue to take the lead and see diversified growth long-term.

“We raise our fair value estimate to $1,300 per share from $920 as we raise our AI spending expectations. Shares were flat after hours, indicating that much of the upside in 2026 was already priced in. We see further upside from here, and shares look attractive.”

—William Kerwin

Societe Generale

  • Fair Value Estimate: $15.00
  • Fair Value Increase: 40%
  • Mornignstar Rating: ★★
  • Economic Moat: None

“For years, Societe Generale’s profitability was below its cost of capital, but the current management has sharply improved profitability through aggressive cost cuts. The bank also benefited from favorable rates, benign credit conditions, and high volatility, which boosted trading revenue.

“We forecast a persistent improvement in the cost/income ratio to below 60%. We also see lower midcycle credit costs, reflecting improved credit quality and a change in the composition of the lending book. With this backdrop, we expect the bank to pay out 75% of earnings over the next three years.”

—Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst