Nvidia NVDA is set to release its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings report on Nov. 19. Here’s Morningstar’s take on what to look for in Nvidia’s earnings and the outlook for its stock.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Nvidia Stock

  • Fair Value Estimate: $225.00
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

Nvidia earnings release date

  • Wednesday, Nov. 19, after close of trading in the US.

What to watch for in Nvidia’s Q3 earnings

  • Nvidia is calling for $3 trillion-$4 trillion of AI infrastructure spending per year by 2030. OpenAI has struck deals for $1.4 trillion of AI infrastructure to be potentially built out in the next few years. Nvidia essentially hinted at $300 billion of AI infrastructure for calendar 2026.
  • China is less interesting to us, although Nvidia is likely working on selling into the region, which represents further upside to us.
  • Nvidia’s supply into CoreWeave, Lambda, and others is interesting to us. Nvidia is a key supplier into large cloud companies, but we hope to learn more about whether the longer tail of smaller cloud companies is becoming meaningful as well.
  • We’ll continue to seek insight about the balance between Nvidia’s large customers relying on Nvidia vs. using AMD for certain workloads vs. custom chips, or ASICs. Some deals for Google’s TPUs are interesting to us.

Fair Value estimate for Nvidia

With its 3-star rating, we believe Nvidia’s stock is fairly valued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $225 per share, which implies an equity value of $5.1 trillion. Our fair value estimate implies a fiscal 2026 (ending January 2026 or effectively calendar 2025) price/adjusted earnings multiple of 50 times and a fiscal 2027 forward price/adjusted earnings multiple of 30 times.

Economic Moat Rating

We assign Nvidia a wide economic moat, thanks to intangible assets around its graphics processing units and high customer switching costs around its proprietary software, Cuda, for AI tools, which enables developers to use Nvidia’s GPUs to build AI models.

Financial strength

Nvidia is in outstanding financial health. As of July 2025, the company held $57 billion in cash and investments, as compared with $8.5 billion in long-term debt. Semiconductor firms tend to hold large cash balances to help them navigate the cycles of the chip industry. During downturns, this provides them with a cushion and flexibility to continue investing in research and development, which is necessary to maintain their competitive and technological positions. Nvidia has more than enough of a cash cushion to handle downturns, and we struggle to foresee opportunities for the company to spend this excess cash other than stock buybacks. Nvidia’s dividend is virtually immaterial relative to its financial health and forward prospects.

Risk and uncertainty

We assign Nvidia an Uncertainty Rating of Very High due to the nascent nature of the AI market. In our view, Nvidia’s valuation will be tied to its ability to grow within AI, for better or worse. Nvidia is an industry leader in GPUs used in AI model training, while carving out a good portion of demand for chips used in AI inference workloads (which involve running a model to make a prediction or output).

NVDA bulls say

  • The AI infrastructure opportunity is massive, as over $1 trillion of infrastructure is likely already deployed and the company foresees up to $4 trillion more in spending through the rest of the decade.
  • Nvidia’s data center GPUs and Cuda software platform have established the company as the dominant vendor for AI model training and inference.
  • Nvidia is expanding nicely within AI, not just supplying industry-leading GPUs but also moving into networking, software, and services to tie these GPUs into even more-powerful clusters.

NVDA bears say

  • Nvidia’s customers are a handful of the largest tech companies in the world, and they all have an incentive to eventually diversify away from Nvidia to some extent.
  • AI infrastructure spending has been impressive but revenue and use cases are less certain, perhaps providing doubts that there is a good return on investment on AI that might lead to a spending downturn at some point in the future.
  • Geopolitics have entered the AI space, most notably limiting Nvidia’s AI opportunities in China.

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