This is the fourth and final edition of the weekly wrap for February 2026 earnings season. I have split up winners and losers into two separate articles.

The following companies saw positive market reactions following their results. Here’s how the market reaction compares with our analysts’ views.

This week’s winners

Woolworths (ASX.WOW)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $31.50 (15% premium at 27 February)
  • Rating: ★★
  • Moat: Wide

Woolworths share price skyrocketed following its half year result gaining 13% on the day. Woolies reported an underlying net profit increase of 16% to $859 million. The supermarket segment saw a sharp increase in sales momentum. The interim dividend was increased by 15% to $0.45 on the back of improving profit margins.

Our analyst Johannes Faul increased his fair value for Woolworths by 3% to $31.50. Johannes noted that sales momentum suggests Woolies is regaining some ground lost to Coles. In the near term, he expects profit margins to expand on the back of this momentum. However, Johannes reiterated that Woolworths shares are overvalued at current levels.

WiseTech (ASX.WTC)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $138 (66% discount at 27 February)
  • Rating: ★★★★★
  • Moat: Wide

WiseTech shares jumped 11% on the day earnings came out. The logistics software company saw EBITDA rise 32%, driven by a 76% increase in revenue growth. Organic revenue grew 7%. WiseTech announced it would be reducing its workforce by 25% by FY27 with the accelerating deployment of AI agents.

Our analyst Roy Van Keulen maintained his fair value for WiseTech at $138 per share. WTC shares have fallen 60% in the past six months as investors question the moats of software companies in the new age of AI. Roy disagrees noting that WiseTech screens as materially undervalued. According to Roy AI is a material tailwind for WiseTech both for compressing delivery costs and realising value through their transaction-based model.

Fortescue (ASX.FMG)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $16.60 (25% premium at 27 February)
  • Rating: ★★
  • Moat: None

Fortescue shares jumped 4.5% following their half yearly result. Fortescue’s net profit was up 23% to USD $1.9 billion or USD $0.62 per share. Increased profits resulted from stronger iron ore prices and volumes. The dividend increased by 24% to $0.62 per share (fully franked). Management also reaffirmed guidance for the full year.

Our analyst Jon Mills retained his fair value at $16.60 despite the strong result. Jon noted the 25% premium FMG trades at can be explained by higher iron ore prices which are above his midcycle forecast. While demand for iron ore from China remains strong, Jon believes this will soften due to falling steel production and rising scrap use.

Reece (ASX.REH)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $10.50 (48% premium at 27 February)
  • Rating: ★
  • Moat: None

REH shares jumped 15% after reporting first-half results. Reece reported first-half EBIT of $262 million which was 14% lower year on year. Revenue was 6% higher buoyed by new store growth. Despite lower earnings, the result beat expectations.

Our analyst Esther Holloway raised her fair value by 5% to $10.50 per share. She noted the upgrade was due to a slightly stronger earnings outlook. However, REH shares are materially overvalued. Esther believes the market is too optimistic on the US business. In the US, Reece is a small player in a hot market.

Super Retail Group (ASX.SUL)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $14 (11% premium at 27 February)
  • Rating: ★★★
  • Moat: Narrow

Super Retail shares jumped 8% on the day of reporting. The underlying net profit declined 7% to $122 million. Discounting across products and increases in operating costs from wages and rent were the main reasons for lower profits. The interim dividend of $0.32 (fully franked) remained flat year on year.

Our analyst Johannes Faul retained his fair value of $14 per share. Johannes notes the shares are slightly overvalued at current levels. He expects sales growth to average 4% over the next decade, driven by rising household incomes. Super Retail’s sales momentum has held up nicely despite the Reserve Bank’s recent rate hike. Elevated inflation and the prospect of further interest rates hikes are expected to weigh on consumer spending.

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