Global Markets Report - 21 November
Australian shares are set to open higher.
Australia
Australian shares are set to edge higher after Wall Street gained on Friday. US stocks ended a volatile week higher as investors weighed recent economic data as well as hawkish comments from Fed officials this week.
ASX futures were up 24 points or 0.3% at 7192 as of 8:00am on Saturday, pointing to a gain at the open.
US home sales fell for the ninth straight month, the longest streak of declines on record with the National Association of Realtors, with high mortgage rates discouraging buyers.
The Dow gains 0.6% to 33745, the S&P 500 advances 0.5% to 3965 and the Nasdaq inches higher to 11146. This leaves the Dow a hair lower for the week, while the Nasdaq is off 1.5% following a big rally last week.
In commodity markets, Brent crude oil slipped 2.2% to $US87.82 a barrel, gold edged down 0.65% to US$ 1,749.00.
In local bond markets, the yield on Australian 2 Year government bonds rose to 3.1% while the 10 Year was flat at 3.61%. Overseas, the yield on 2 Year US Treasury notes rose to 4.53% and the yield on the 10 Year US Treasury notes was down at 3.82%.
The Australian dollar hit 66.72 US cents down from the previous close of 66.86. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the US dollar against 16 other currencies edged down to 99.71.
Asia
Chinese shares ended mixed, dragged down by electronics and lithium producers as daily Covid-19 cases rose above 25,000, focusing attention on the pandemic once again. Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium each lost 3.0%, while semiconductor company Naura Technology slid 4.9%. Gainers included pharma stocks, with Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical up 4.0%. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.6% to 3097.24, eking out 0.3% weekly gain. The Shenzhen Composite Index gave up 0.5% but the ChiNext Price Index added 0.2%. Investors will be watching for PBOC's loan prime rate announcement due Monday.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished 0.3% lower at 17992.54, extending its losing streak to the third session, weighed by rising Covid-19 cases in China and fading hopes that the Fed may slow its pace of interest-rate increases. Chinese property developers and financials declined, with Country Garden Holdings down 6.5%, Ping An Insurance 3.7% lower and Citic Ltd. dropping 2.7%. Among gainers, online-games developer NetEase added 3.7% after reporting quarterly results and receiving regulatory approval for a game title. JD.com climbed 3.6% ahead of earnings, while Alibaba Group rose 2.2% after extending its share buyback program by $15 billion. The benchmark index logged a 3.8% weekly gain.
The Nikkei Stock Average ended 0.1% lower at 27899.77, as investors continued to digest data that showed that Japan's overall October consumer inflation rose on year as well as comments by BOJ Governor Kuroda that the central bank will support economic recovery by continuing its program of monetary easing. Sentiment was also partially weighed by concerns over rising geopolitical tensions in the region after North Korea fired a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile off its east coast. Shipping stocks were lower, withNippon Yusen slipping 2.4%, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines down 2.9% and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha off 3.0%.
Europe
European stocks rose in closing trade as investors brush aside comments from Federal Reserve officials about raising interest rates further.
The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.2%, in London, the FTSE 100 gained 0.5%, the German DAX advanced 1.2% and the French CAC 40 added 1%.
"Stocks are once again shrugging off warnings about high interest rates in the US, and it appears the normal seasonal tendency of equities to rally in the fourth quarter has asserted itself once again," IG analyst Chris Beauchamp wrote.
The fact that Fed speakers continue to sound "hawkish" but to little apparent effect suggests traders have their hearts set on a risk-rally into year-end even if that sets everyone up for a fall in January, he says.
North America
Stocks rose Friday, capping a tumultuous week with investors assessing the outlook for interest rates. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged ahead less than 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.6%, or 200 points.
A slowdown in inflation sent stocks ripping higher last week, and the dollar and bond yields into retreat. The S&P last week wrapped up its best stretch since the summer. But in recent days, hopes that the Federal Reserve will back off its campaign of aggressive interest-rate increases have faded somewhat.
"We had a 6% rally in the S&P 500 last week. We don't think the Fed wants to see a return of the animal spirits," said Derek Amey, co-chief investment officer at StrategicPoint Investment Advisors in Rhode Island. Mr. Amey said he is hiding out from the volatility by holding industrials and healthcare stocks along with bonds.
Central-bank officials including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made the case this week to keep raising rates to curb decadeshigh inflation. Mr. Bullard said Thursday that the Fed's policy rate could rise higher than traders in interest-rate futures are expecting.
Strong labor-market and retail-sales data, meanwhile, suggested the economy has a way to go before higher borrowing costs cause the kind of downturn that could prompt the Fed to reverse course. All of that has sent jitters through the stock market and pushed bond yields up -- though the S&P 500 is still about 10% higher than its recent low on Oct. 12.
On the economic front, US existing home sales fell for a ninth straight month in October as high mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the market.
"There is nothing that guarantees that inflation is behind us," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. "Where it settles out is really what's most important here. Do we go back to its pre-Covid trend of 1 to 2% or settle out at 3 to 4%?"
Mr. Boockvar said he's betting that inflation will be around 3% to 4% in 2023. He plans to continue holding Treasury inflation-protected securities and stocks within the precious metals and energy sectors, which tend to do better in inflationary times.
In stocks, Ross Stores rose 10%. The off-price retail and home-accessories store operator raised its guidance for the fourth quarter and topped sales and earnings forecast.
Shares of Grindr surged more than 200% after the LGBTQ-focused social network and dating app completed its merger with special-purpose acquisition company Tiga Acquisition Corp.
Turbulence in the crypto industry caused by the downfall of exchange FTX hasn't seeped into broader financial markets. On Friday, cryptocurrencies were stable, with bitcoin trading almost flat compared with Thursday evening at about $16,600.
