This is the second of three ASX reporting season wraps in August and early September. This edition includes a selection of results covered by our analysts during the week to Wednesday August 20.

This week’s winners

NAB and Westpac

One of the more interesting stories from reporting season has been the relative performance of our big bank stocks. While CBA shares have struggled, Westpac (WBC) and NAB (NAB) have both seen their shares rise materially since the start of August.

In the case of NAB, this was despite flat earnings growth versus the same quarter last year. As Nathan Zaia noted in his report on the result, this was mostly due to one-off payroll remediation costs masking decent underlying growth. Westpac’s double-digit lift in the share price followed high single-digit growth in profits.

Nathan was pleased to see signs of less aggressive pricing competition in the industry, but he still thinks big bank valuations are frothy. NAB and Westpac both traded around 30% above Nathan’s estimate of Fair Value recently, while CBA shares traded at a 73% premium.

GPT Group (GPT)

  • Moat rating: No Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $5.80 per security
  • Star Rating: ★★★

In April, I caught up with our A-REIT analyst Winky Tan to discuss a potential turning point for office assets. Her optimism appears to have been well placed as updates from Dexus, Mirvac and GPT Group last week all suggested better times ahead.

The market was most impressed with GPT Group, which told investors to expect profits meeting or exceeding the upper range of their previous guidance. This, Winky said in her report, has been helped by a continued flight to higher quality buildings and solid rent growth in new leases.

BHP (BHP)

  • Moat rating: No Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $40 per share
  • Star Rating: ★★★

BHP’s earnings were slightly below our forecasts. The miner produced more copper than last year, but this was more than offset by lower iron ore prices. This led to a fall in the final dividend payment for the fiscal year and a lower payout for fiscal 2025 as a whole versus 2024.

Despite this, markets reacted warmly to the result. Our analyst Jon Mills thinks this was likely due to BHP’s lower guidance for medium-term capital expenditure. For Jon’s latest thoughts on BHP shares, read his post results update here.

Ampol (ALD)

  • Moat rating: No Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $28.50 per share
  • Star Rating: ★★★

Ampol announced a big acquisition ahead of earnings – it will pay just over $1 billion in cash and stock to buy EG Group’s gas stations in Australia. Markets loved the deal, pushing Ampol shares up by around 15% after it was made public.

Our analyst Mark Taylor says the reaction is likely down to the deal enhancing Ampol’s convenience retail offering. Mark views the EG acquisition as a fairly low-risk deal struck at a fair price.

As for the earnings themselves, underlying profits in the first half of 2025 fell by 26%. Good performance from the Australian retail business and Z Energy in New Zealand could not offset the sharp fall in profits within Ampol’s refining operations.

Suncorp (SUN)

  • Moat rating: No Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $16 per share
  • Star Rating: ★★

Suncorp reported an 8% increase in cash profits and guided to mid-single digit growth in fiscal 2026. Our analyst Nathan Zaia said that the results beat his forecast by around 5%, helped by stronger premium growth, claims and investment income.

The big question, though, is whether this can continue. Nathan thinks that Suncorp’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17 suggests that markets think it can sustain earnings growth at a similar clip. He isn’t so sure.

Most insurers have made hay in recent years thanks to a combination of large premium rate increases and lower claim costs - industry conditions that have been about as favourable as they could have been. Nathan thinks it likely that either claim costs rise or that price competition starts to increase. You can read his reaction to Suncorp’s result here.

Breville (BRG)

  • Moat rating: Narrow Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $21 per share
  • Star Rating: ★

Breville has been in materially overvalued territory for a while according to our analyst Angus Hewitt. This may have left the shares vulnerable to any missteps in earnings season, but a 10% lift in pre-tax profits went down well with investors.

Breville’s brand power continued to underpin strong growth across its main markets in Europe, North America and APAC. However, management delayed putting a number on tariff impacts until the first-half of fiscal 2026. Something to keep an eye on, says Angus.

This week’s disappointments

James Hardie (JHX)

  • Moat rating: Wide Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $44 per share
  • Star Rating: ★★★★

It has not been a good year for James Hardie shareholders. Markets - and many of the shareholders themselves - did not like the acquisition of Azek or how it was pushed through without a vote. And now, a major earnings and guidance miss.

Our analyst Esther Holloway said that the magnitude of the guidance downgrade is the main story. This appears to stem from 1) weaker US building and renovation activity and 2) Hardie’s channel partners working their way through built up inventory.

Esther cut her Fair Value estimate for the shares by 8% to account for management’s weaker near-term guidance. But she stressed that, while cyclical, demand for Hardie’s leading house siding products is unlikely to be permanently impaired. In short, she thinks the sell off was overdone.

Reliance Worldwide (RWC)

  • Moat rating: Narrow Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $5.70 per share
  • Star Rating: ★★★★

Reliance owns the US’s leading brand of push-to-connect plumbing components, SharkBite, and other specialist building product brands. 70% of RWC’s earnings come from North America where – similarly to James Hardie – demand has been muted due to less repair, renovation and building activity.

This led to flat organic growth year-on-year and a subdued forecast for fiscal 2026. Our analyst Esther Holloway acknowledged these headwinds and has pared back her short-term growth expectations. However, she thinks that worries over tariffs and the US housing environment have left the shares undervalued from a long-term perspective.

ASX Ltd (ASX)

  • Moat rating: Wide Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $7.70 per share
  • Star Rating: ★★★★

ASX Ltd shares fell as the market baulked at it reporting ‘higher for longer’ capital expenditure and operating expenses.

Our analyst Roy was left unsatisfied by management’s explanation of markedly higher spending on technology, but he held his Fair Value estimate for the shares at $77. He thinks ASX Ltd screens as materially undervalued following the sell-off as investors struggle to see an end to the company’s recent plight.

Roy also took ASX out of the naughty corner for capital allocation. He lifting its rating on this front to Standard from Poor on account of the decisions made by CEO Helen Lofthouse following the bungled effort to replace CHESS.

CSL (CSL)

  • Moat rating: Narrow Moat
  • Fair Value estimate: $305 per share
  • Star Rating: ★★★★

A spin-off, a share buyback, big job cuts, slower than expected revenue growth, and a big jump in profits. It’s fair to say that CSL investors and our healthcare analyst Shane Ponraj had plenty to digest on Tuesday.

Markets weren’t impressed. CSL shares were slammed 17% on the day, with Shane putting most of this down to concerns that the job cuts will hinder revenue growth. Nonetheless, Shane saw positives in the report too.

For one, he says that simplifying the business could have its perks. You can read Shane’s initial reaction to CSL earnings here. We’ll also have an Ask the analyst on this for you soon.

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