Following this weeks winners article, I conclude earnings season with the losers. This week saw both volatile share price swings and changes to fair value across our coverage. Here’s everything you need to know.

This week’s losers

Guzman Y Gomez (ASX.GYG)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $16 (14% premium at 26 February)
  • Rating: ★★
  • Moat: None

Guzman Y Gomez shares fell 13.9% following their half year result. GYG’s sales grew by 18% underpinned by 29 net store openings. Margins expanded in the first half and net profit after tax was up 45% to $11 million. In the core Australian segment, like for like sales rose 4% while in the US they rose 3%. Analysts use like for like sales comparisons to show how fast established stores (12 months running) are organically growing. The shares sold off following wider losses in the US stores.

Our analyst Johannes Faul maintains his fair value of $16 per share. Johannes noted that market sentiment is souring on the US expansion. While Australian network earnings are growing strongly, like for like sales growth has decelerated and is approaching the broader industry average. However, Johannes reiterates the long term growth runway is still intact. Guzman’s Australian network is forecast to at least double in the next decade, well ahead of Collins Foods (KFC) and Domino’s Pizza.

Domino’s Pizza (ASX.DMP)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $41 (50% discount at 26 February)
  • Rating: ★★★★★
  • Moat: Narrow

DMP shares fell 11% following its result. Global network sales declined 2% in the first half. Discounting less to boost franchisee margins resulted in lower sales. Domino’s reported more cost cutting and a lower marketing spend which held up profits. The underlying EBIT rose 1% to $102 million. Like for like sales declined by 3% in the first half. The interim dividend fell 55% to $0.25.

Johannes Faul maintained his fair value at $41 highlighting the shares are materially undervalued. Johannes believes the market is too pessimistic on the long term growth opportunity for Domino’s. The risk of an equity raising or a fire sale of non core assets is diminishing with leverage nearing managements target.

Lendlease (ASX.LLC)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $6.40 (36% discount at 26 February)
  • Rating: ★★★★
  • Moat: None

Lendlease shares fell 8% on the day of reporting. The company reported a sharp 59% fall in operating earnings. The decline in earnings largely reflects a skew of development income to the second half. The company’s capital release unit (CRU), was set up in 2024 to divest non-core projects and assets which would unlock capital. The CRU posted a loss of $232 million driven by delayed settlement, asset holding costs and impairments. It appears these assets may be harder to sell than the market forecasts.

Our analyst Yingqi Tan slashed her fair value target by 20% to $6.40. The significant cut to fair value was driven by waning confidence in CRU asset sales. Despite the cut to fair value, Yinqi believes the market is pricing in a discount to Lendlease’s underlying asset values that is larger than the situation calls for.

Where the market was indifferent

Ampol (ASX.ALD)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $29.60 (4% discount at 26 February)
  • Rating: ★★★
  • Moat: None

Ampol shares were relatively unchanged following their result, down 2%. The fuel retailer reported an 106% increase in net profit to $375 million. The strong improvement was driven by its refining and retail segments. Ampol declared a $0.60 final dividend (fully franked) which is a 54% improvement year on year.

Our analyst Mark Taylor maintained his fair value of $29.60. He highlighted the appeal of Ampol’s growing fuel and convenience earnings in Australia and New Zealand. While electric vehicles will make inroads, Mark expects refined fuel demand to persist well into the 2030s. Additionally, growth in the retail segment continues to reduce reliance on Ampol’s more volatile refining business.

Woodside (ASX.WDS)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $42 (34% discount at 26 February)
  • Rating: ★★★★★
  • Moat: None

Woodside saw shares rise by 2% on the day results were released. Woodside reported an 8% decline in net profit after tax to USD $2.6 billion. Operating cash flow increased 85% to USD $3.7 billion. The company declared a USD $0.59 final dividend, up 11% on a steady 80% payout.

Mark Taylor maintained his fair value at $42 per share. He noted that net profit was 9% above forecasts, driven by impressive cost control. Mark believes the market remains overly bearish on the stock. The renewable energy transition has introduced greater uncertainty for hydrocarbon providers. However, Mark expects demand for oil to remain resilient with strong demand from heavy transport and petrochemical segments.

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