This is our third edition of the weekly wrap for the February 2026 earnings season. Due to the heavy concentration of companies reporting in week 3, I have split up winners and losers into two separate articles.

In this article, I will solely focus on the earnings winners. These companies saw positive market reactions following their results.

BHP Group (ASX.BHP)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $44 (20% premium at 20 February)
  • Rating: ★★
  • Moat: None

The market was bullish on BHP following their interim result, with the share price up 5% for the day. BHP increased its interim dividend by nearly 50% to USD $0.73 (fully franked). The company reported a 22% increase in first half underlying net profit to USD$6.2 billion. BHP also agreed to effectively presell 80% of its share of the Antamina copper and zinc mine’s silver production to Wheaton for USD $4.3 billion.

Our analyst Jon Mills maintained his $44 fair value for BHP. Positives included higher copper volumes and the Wheaton transaction. This was offset by increased iron ore costs and a stronger Aussie dollar. Jon notes the elevated copper price is the main driver for the shares trading at a 20% premium. Given how elevated silver prices are, Jon thought the pre-sale to Weaton Precious Metals was a smart move. You can read more on Jon’s note here.

The a2 Milk Co Ltd (ASX.A2M)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $8.10 (18% premium at 20 February)
  • Rating: ★★
  • Moat: Narrow

A2 Milk’s share price rose 7.1% on the day of their interim report. A2M reported EBITDA of NZD$155 million, an 18% increase from last year. Earnings growth was driven by double-digit sales growth across all key segments.

Our analyst Angus Hewitt increased his fair value by 2% to $8.10. Angus reiterated the shares still screen as expensive. He believes the market is too focused on A2M’s recent success, overlooking long-term demographic headwinds. Lower birth rates in China could impact a2’s sales volumes. You can read more on Angus’s note here.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX.JBH)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $57 (50% premium at 20 February)
  • Rating: ★
  • Moat: None

JB HI-FI shares jumped 7% on the back of their first half result. The company saw group sales increase by 7%. The groups major chains JB Hi Fi and The Good Guys saw notable improvement in their earnings margins. The fully franked dividend increased by 24% compared to last year on a higher payout ratio.

Following the result, our analyst Johannes Faul maintained his fair value of $57 highlighting the shares are materially overvalued. Johannes expects JB Hi-Fi’s sales growth to moderate as the recent cash rate hike and inflationary pressures are expected to restrain consumer spending. Furthermore, JB Hi-Fi’s margins are expected to be constrained by competition from Harvey Norman and Amazon. You can read more on Johannes note here.

National Australia Bank (ASX.NAB)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $34 (42% premium at 20 February)
  • Rating: ★
  • Moat: Wide

NAB shares rose 5% on the day of reporting. The bank’s first quarter profit of $2 billion was up 16% on previous quarters. The strong result was driven by significant loan growth and a modest improvement in net interest margins (NIM’s). NAB also maintained flat operating expenses for the quarter.

Our analyst Nathan Zaia increased the fair value for NAB by 3% to $34. NAB and Westpac are the only two big banks which received a fair value upgrade this earnings season. Nathan was impressed by the result. He pointed to NAB’s return on equity of 12% over the past three years as a highlight of the bank’s performance. However, at the current price NAB shares are materially overvalued with a lower growth outlook due to housing affordability. You can read more on Nathan’s note here.

Telstra Group (ASX.TLS)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $5.40 (10% discount at 20 February)
  • Rating: ★★★★
  • Moat: Narrow

Telstra shares jumped 3.6% following their interim result. The market responded bullishly to the 6% lift in underlying EBITDA to $4.185 billion. Underlying net profit also increased by 12% to $1.147 billion. The interim dividend increased by 11% to $0.105 (now 91% franked). Importantly, the guidance for the full year was reiterated across all metrics.

I had a chance to speak to our analyst Brian Han on what to look for prior to Telstra’s result. Han mentioned that he was focusing on the extent of fixed cost reductions in the business. The result showed first half fixed costs were cut by 2%. This cost cutting further leveraged the growth of the mobile and infrastructure business.

Han maintains Telstra’s fair value at $5.40, a 10% discount following the jump in share price. Han’s “shrinking to greatness” thesis is playing out. This is evidenced by the two metrics Telstra investors are most focused on. A steadily growing dividend and improving return on invested capital (8.9% versus 8.0% a year ago).

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