Key Morningstar metrics for Exxon Mobil

  • Fair Value Estimate: $142.00
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

What we thought of Exxon Mobil’s earnings

ExxonMobil XOM reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.3 billion, slightly above market expectations. Earnings fell from the prior year as lower oil prices offset the benefits of higher volumes and stronger refining margins. It delivered 10 projects with an annual earnings capacity of $3 billion.

Why it matters: Exxon’s investment thesis rests on the combination of the addition of high-margin volumes combined with structural cost reductions to deliver 2030 earnings growth targets. Despite the year-over-year decline in earnings, Exxon continued to deliver on these two elements, which leaves it on track for greater future earnings capacity and delivery of those targets.

  • Fourth-quarter production grew to 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, led by record volumes from high-margin Guyana and Permian assets. Full-year production grew by 9%, with advantaged volumes reaching 59% from 52% in 2024.
  • Structural cost savings reached a cumulative $15.1 billion at year-end from 2019, on track for $20 billion by 2030.

The bottom line: We are increasing our fair value estimate to $142 per share from $129 while maintaining our narrow moat rating. Shares look fairly valued at current levels, but the company continues to stand out among peers for the quality of its assets, earnings, and cash flow growth potential.

  • Our fair value includes updated guidance for 2030 earnings of $25 billion, up from $20 billion previously, driven in part by an increase in structural cost savings to $20 billion from $18 billion, and the narrowing of the upper end of its expected capital expenditure range for 2027-30.
  • Exxon repurchased $20 billion of shares in 2025 and plans to do the same in 2026.

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