With earnings season around the corner, now is an ideal time to revisit expectations for major Aussie listed shares. Company results are an opportunity to either validate or challenge your investment thesis.

Most earnings reports are unlikely to move the needle for long-term investors. However, staying on top of earnings updates is one of the simplest ways investors can monitor their long-term thesis on a company.

I have handpicked three major ASX constituents in our coverage and asked our analysts what they are looking for in upcoming results.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $100 (49% premium at 23 January)
  • Rating: ★
  • Moat: Wide

Commonwealth Bank is set to report interim results (half-yearly) on Wednesday 11th February. The last time CBA reported, the results were in line with our analyst Nathan Zaia’s expectations with no real surprises. Nathan reiterated the steep premium CBA is trading at in comparison to his Fair Value Estimate of $100.

One thing to look out for in bank earnings is the Net Interest Margin or NIM. This is arguably the most important profit metric when analysing banks. NIM shows how effectively a bank generates returns from lending, with increasing NIM generally indicating improved profitability. With that context, here are the three questions I put to Nathan on CBA’s upcoming earnings result.

What are the key metrics/indicators you are looking for in the upcoming CBA result?

“Loan growth, NIM, operating costs, and bad debts are the key lines for banks, but it’s important how it all comes together. The balance of loan growth and NIM is important. For CBA it will be interesting to see how much additional expenses there might be to keep loan growth accelerating outside the broker channel. Its higher margin, but the costs of more tightly managing the customer relationship can’t be ignored. In recent periods the banks strategic thinking on technology, how its already benefiting the bank, and opportunities for the future will be of particular interest. In other words, how AI can help differentiate the bank and lower its costs to serve customers”.

Do you expect the Net Interest Margin (NIM) to remain flat given more recent loan growth for CBA?

“Yes we think NIM will be flattish. Despite the pick up in loan growth, the bank has proven successful in getting more loan growth outside of the broker channel, where margins are better. The bank has also had stronger household deposit growth than the market, and given a large portion is usually in the cheaper transaction accounts, it gives the bank a funding cost advantage over others. The benefits from hedging on capital and deposits is also coming through.”

What needs to go right in this earnings result for the market to justify the premium to fair value?

“I don’t think this one result can do anything to justify the share price. Even with stronger NIM, material cost savings, and large market share gains it would be a struggle to justify the share price. We don’t think even using a lower discount rate, or juicing up earnings growth to level it hasn’t been able to achieve, we could get to the share price. Even though CBA is the best of the bunch, it doesn’t have it all its own way, you can see it in the way margin upside was competed away as the cash rate increased. The regulator would never let CBA use its scale to price smaller banks out of the market and take share either. So I feel like the share price is detached from the fundamentals right now, and what happens to close the gap I really can’t answer, but its hard to put a case together for why an investor should be buying CBA right now.”

CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $295 (40% discount at 23 January)
  • Rating: ★★★★★
  • Moat: Narrow

CSL is set to report interim results on Wednesday 11th February. The company’s last report in August had earnings in line with our analyst Shane Ponraj’s expectations but sales growth was lower than expected. The result saw CSL shares fall 17% with market concerns around the impact on sales growth from the plan to cut staff costs. Following the result, Ponraj cut group revenue forecasts by 5%.

Given CSL’s difficult run investors will be looking for indications that in the result that could shift sentiment. Additionally, the company may share details on how the delay in the spinoff of the Seqirus business might impact earnings. I put these questions to Shane.

What are the key metrics/indicators you are looking for in the interim results?

“Sales growth of its key product, immunoglobulins is a key indicator. Excluding one-off impacts, the firm expects high single digit immunoglobulins sales growth through to fiscal 2028 despite growing competition in the CIDP indication. We are also looking for progress with CSL’s USD 550 million cost savings target by fiscal 2028, largely from rationalising its research and development sites and its highest cost collection centres. Finally, we are looking for early sales of its new product Andembry, which we expect to take market share back from Takeda on more convenient dosing.”

What is one thing in the result or commentary that would most likely change investor confidence in CSL’s earnings outlook?

“Gross margin expansion in the main plasma division. Major improvements in blood collection, donation times, and manufacturing yield are enabling faster and higher-volume donor collections that are yet to flow through, given roughly a one-year lag between plasma collections and sales. Investors’ confidence would grow after seeing these operational improvements in the numbers”.

As the Seqirus spin-off has been delayed, what impact will this have on the current earnings?

“While Seqirus is challenged by falling US influenza vaccination rates that are yet to stabilise, the segment contributes less than 15% of group earnings. Vaccine declines were inevitable after the pandemic boom, but infections remain high. We expect US immunization to largely stabilize by fiscal 2028 as health practitioners drive rates and the US administration maintains its positive recommendation, excluding thimerosal, with efficacy supported by clinical evidence.”

Telstra Group (ASX:TLS)

• Fair Value Estimate: $5.40 (13% discount at 23 January)

• Rating: ★★★★

• Moat: Narrow

Telstra is set to report interim results on Thursday 19th February. The company’s last filing was in line with our analyst Brian Han’s expectations. Following the result, Han lifted EBITDA forecasts by 4%.

Which key metrics/indicators will you be focusing on in the interim results?

“The key metrics to focus on in the February result can be broken down into three categories. The first is the number of mobile subscribers and average revenue per user growth. The second is EBITDA margins and in particular, mobile EBITDA growth. This is a measure of core profitability over revenue which is a useful metric when comparing against competitors. The last key indicator will be the amount of core fixed costs that have been taken out by management.”

In the interim report, which business segment will tell investors the most about Telstra’s underlying health?

“For investors looking at the underlying health of Telstra’s segments, the mobile business and fixed enterprise as the two key players. In the mobile business, I’m looking for signs of earnings resilience. For fixed enterprise, it will be looking at how ruthless management is at cutting costs and shedding uneconomic businesses.”

How important is the FY26 guidance in comparison to the headline numbers?

“FY26 guidance is important because any big negative divergence from current projection means either management doesn’t have its arms around the business or industry competition is having an adverse impact. The first half fiscal 2026 number is important because it shows whether the company is on track to meet the full year guidance, or requires a heavy lift in the second half.”

Where do you expect evidence of the success of “Connected Future 30” to show in this result?

“In May 2025, Telstra announced the “Connected Future 30” strategy, a five-year plan to increase profitability and increase returns on investment. We expect to see evidence of the success of “Connected Future 30” in mobile subscribers, revenue growth, fixed consumer and small business EBITDA growth, group underlying EBITDA and dividends.

Wrap Up

Earnings season often illuminates the gap between investor expectations and reality. The three major ASX players I’ve covered are different businesses and have different underlying profit drivers. The one common question I asked our analysts was what they were looking for in the result. I did this for two reasons.

Understanding what an analyst is looking for prior to results allows investors to familiarise themselves with key metrics in the reports that are likely to impact the fundamentals of that specific company. That way investors can get a better grasp on what is truly driving the share price reaction following the result.

The second reason I’ve chosen this approach was to show that every business has different value drivers. No single metric can definitively determine whether a result is good or bad. Instead, a solid understanding of the right indicators can help investors interpret results during earnings season.

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