This is our first weekly wrap for the February 2026 earnings season. The first week of earnings is quieter than the following weeks with most ASX listed companies reporting in the last two weeks of February. Given only a handful of companies have reported, this week’s edition will be brief.

I have split the weekly earnings contenders into three categories: winners, losers and indifferent. Where a company lands on the list will be based on the market reaction of the result. In addition, I’ve outlined our analyst’s reaction and any changes to the fair value.

Winners

Amcor PLC (ASX.AMC)

Fair Value Estimate: $90 (23% discount at 5 February)

Rating: ★★★★★

Moat: Narrow

The Amcor share price opened strongly rising 5% following their quarterly result. Amcor’s first-half fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings (before interest & tax) of USD 1.3 billion was 73% higher than last year. Overall, the result met our analysts’ expectations despite cyclical consumer weakness highlighted in lower sales volumes.

Our analyst Esther Holloway adds that the market is overlooking the cyclical upside as cost of living headwinds pass and the company increases sales in higher margin niche packaging categories such as healthcare, beauty and pet food.

Holloway maintained her fair value estimate of $90 per share following the result, citing it remains in Morningstar’s best stock ideas list. Amcor also increased their quarterly dividend to USD$0.65 per share (Aussie CDI shareholders receive AUD $0.93 per share).

Indifferent

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (ASX.CQE)

Fair Value Estimate: $3.70 (23% discount at 5 February)

Rating: ★★★★

Moat: None

For the first half of fiscal 2026, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure reported 10% operating earnings growth year on year. The market reaction was relatively subdued, down 2.4% on the day of reporting.

Management was upbeat on the full-year outlook, upgrading operating earnings guidance to $0.17 per share, representing 13% growth from last year. The spike in earnings and increase in guidance are largely driven by acquisitions. The REIT has been selling lower-yielding childcare centers and reinvesting in other social infrastructure assets with higher yields.

Our analyst Yingqi Tan believes the shift away from childcare centers is sensible, as it reduces tenant concentration risk and improves returns. While attractive opportunities bring earnings upside, our analyst believes this upside is limited. Tan maintains CQE’s fair value estimate of $3.70, reiterating that the REIT is undervalued offering a yield of 6% at current prices. Furthermore, investors may be underappreciating the income resilience and portfolio quality.

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (ASX.PNI)

Fair Value Estimate: $17 (8% premium at 5 February)

Rating: ★★★

Moat: Narrow

Pinnacle Investment’s reported net profit after tax was down 11% for the half, largely due to lower performance fees which are cyclical. Excluding performance fees, net profit increased by 37%. The market reaction was relatively subdued with the stock up 2.7% following the result. Morningstar analyst Shaun Ler reaffirmed there was no material change to the fair value. Although this is not a slam dunk result, the inflows reported were in line and a positive surprise was higher management fee margins.

Ler reiterated that the shares are mildly overvalued and the market may be underestimating the potential margin erosion from investments to drive growth which has been a consistent story for Pinnacle. The market may also be buoyed by the potential earnings upside from fully acquiring one of its affiliates, Pacific Asset Management. However, Ler believes the firm has paid a fair price for Pacific and sees no significant accretion to fair value.

Losers

Credit Corp (ASX.CCP)

Fair Value Estimate: $13.20 (12% discount at 05 February)

Rating: ★★★

Moat: None

Credit Corp shares fell 16% following its result despite net profit remaining relatively flat and the company reaffirming profit guidance of $100m-110m. This implies that the company is confident that the second half should see growth in profits by 12%. The key issue with the result was lower collection rates and lower guided US debt ledger volumes.

Our analyst Shaun Ler reduced the Fair Value estimate for Credit Corp by 8% to $13.20. Despite the sharp market reaction, Ler reiterated that the large fall in the share price offers some value for investors given pressures on collection rates are baked into the fair value forecast. Looking ahead, Ler reiterates that the firm typically has a stronger second half with large marketing investments expected to flow through to earnings.

Beach Energy (ASX.BPT)

Fair Value Estimate: $2.60 (54% discount at 05 February)

Rating: ★★★★★

Moat: None

Aussie oil and gas company Beach Energy reported a 9% decline in first-half underlying net profit after tax to USD 144 million. The share price fell 4.5% on the day of reporting. Beach Energy declared a 1 cent fully franked interim dividend, down 66% & net operating cash flow fell 43% to USD 212 million.

Our analyst Mark Taylor noted net profit after tax was in line with his expectations and the fiscal 2026 EPS forecast is little changed at $0.19. Taylor highlights that earnings were weaker due to 5% lower pricing and the costs to facilitate Waitsia liquid natural gas sales. Overall, our analysts $2.60 fair value estimate for no-moat Beach Energy remains unchanged.

Taylor added that at current levels, Beach shares remain materially undervalued. The market is primarily concerned about the potential cost to replace reserves, especially considering repeated cost blowouts at Waitsia. Taylor reiterated Beach Energy is well placed to build on Waitsia’s cash flow via drilling and/or an acquisition.

Get Morningstar’s insights in your inbox